Fundamental
Overview
It’s been a rough week for crude
oil as the price dropped more than 6% on renewed growth fears amid a couple of
soft US data. The delay
by OPEC+ to increase production from October didn’t spark a rally but it helped
to slow down the bearish momentum.
A lot now hinges on the US
NFP report today as good data should trigger a relief rally, while weak figures
will likely increase the bearish momentum on recessionary fears.
Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Crude Oil Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil broke below the recent low around the 71.60 level and
extended the drop into the 69 handle. If the selloff extends further, we can
expect the buyers to step in around the 67.68 level to position for a rebound
into the 71.60 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 64 support
zone.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
Crude Oil 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. We
can expect the sellers to keep leaning on the trendline to position for further
downside, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to start
targeting new highs.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Crude Oil 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the bearish momentum waned a bit as the price action became rangebound.
Today we have the US NFP report and good figures will likely trigger a rally,
while weak data might increase the bearish momentum. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we conclude the week with the US NFP report where the consensus sees
160K jobs added and a 4.2% unemployment rate.
