Crude Oil Technical Analysis – The market awaits new catalysts

Fundamental
Overview

The crude oil market went
into a dormant state ever since the end of the Israel-Iran conflict. We haven’t
got much in terms of new information since then which kept the price action
rangebound.

The tariffs trade should now
be near the peak as pretty much everything is priced in and everyone knows we’ll
either get further deadlines or deals within the 10-20% tariff range.

The OPEC+ increases in
supply have also ceased to influence prices as the market priced that in and we
are approaching the end of their output hikes.

This leaves us with
economic data and the Fed as potentially the next major drivers of asset prices
for the rest of the year. The growth and inflation picture should remain skewed
to the upside for now as the Fed forward guidance remains tilted towards
easing. That should keep the market supported.

Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil continues to bounce from the key support
zone around the 64.00 handle. The buyers keep on stepping in around the support
with a defined risk below it to target a move back into the 72.00 resistance.
The sellers will need a break below the key support to open the door for a drop
into the 55.00 handle next.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a range now between the 64.00 support and the 69.00
resistance. The market participants will likely continue to play the range by
buying at support and selling at resistance until we get a breakout on either
side.

Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the recent price action has been pretty messy. This is what generally
happens in rangebound environments and what kills most traders as they give the
profits back to the market. We have a few levels here like the resistance at
67.68 and the trendline
around the 65.50 level. Traders will likely lean on those levels but from a
risk management perspective, it would be better to step in around the key
support or better yet, wait for a clear bullish catalyst. The red lines define
the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

Today we have the US Job Openings and
Consumer Confidence data. Tomorrow, we have the US ADP, the US Q2 GDP and the
FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we get the US PCE price index, the US Jobless
Claims and the US Employment Cost Index. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the
week with the US NFP report and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.