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Democrats have long eyed Texas as a place where they dreamed of breaking through. As the population has shifted in the state, Republicans have spent years enacting voter suppression laws and gerrymandered maps as part of their plan to hold on to power.
Some candidates, like Beto O’Rourke, have come close to winning statewide, but Democrats have needed the right combination of a weak Republican candidate and national climate to win in Texas.
In 2025, those stars might be aligning.
State Attorney General Ken Paxton is wildly unpopular. He is the embodiment of what many Texans view as a corrupt state Republican Party.
Paxton has decided to challenge the octogenarian Sen. John Cornyn who is also unpopular, but Cornyn’s problem is that he is very unpopular with the Republican voters who will be voting in the Texas primary.
The super PAC arm of the Senate Republicans is the Senate Leadership Fund and they recently laid out how expensive it will be to try to save Cornyn.
The Senate Leadership Fund, the top GOP super PAC focused on Senate races, urged donors last week to open their wallets to help Cornyn beat back a challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, arguing the race could become a costly disaster without immediate intervention.
Their message, as laid out in an SLF slideshow obtained by Punchbowl News, is stark — invest in Cornyn now or go broke trying to elect Paxton next fall.
SLF projected it would cost between $25 million to $70 million to help Cornyn win the GOP nomination — or require $200 million to $250 million to save Paxton in the general election.
Paxton could end up costing Senate Republicans nearly $300 million if he becomes the nominee. That is not the cost to pick up a seat. It will have to be spent to save a seat in Texas.
That is $300 million that won’t go to other Senate Republican candidates in races for open seats in places like North Carolina and Michigan.
The Senate Leadership Fund is the fundraising mechanism started by Mitch McConnell. The SLF is the only outside organization dedicated to Senate Republicans, so if it has to spend $300 million to protect one seat, it will be a disaster for the GOP.
At worst, Republicans will spend hundreds of millions of dollars in Texas and be weaker in other states. At best, for Democrats, Paxton wins the nomination, Republicans spend hundreds of millions of dollars, and still lose.
If Democrats win back the Senate in 2026, it will likely be due in large part to having success in Texas.
It might finally be time for Texas to get a little blue.
What do you think about Democratic odds in Texas? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
