Deutsche Financial institution on US equites:
- We
are in rarefied air when it comes to the relentless threat rally because the finish
of October. - the S&P 500 has now been up for 15 out of the final
17 weeks … the primary time since 1989 that’s occurred, and earlier than
that you simply’d want to return to 1972 for such a run - If we get one more
advance this week, it will be 16 out of 18 for the primary time since
1971, the joint document in an 18-week run.
One for the document books. So, pull again time? Maybe not. DB go on:
- Curiously,
taking a look at all such 15/17 week runs, the median value efficiency in
the following 13 and 26 weeks is +2.0% and +5.5%, respectively, that are
each excessive relative to an annual value transfer of round 6% over the past
100 years. So there is no such thing as a particular proof, from historical past, of imply
reversion when you see considered one of these runs.
In a separate notice from DB, analysts say that inflows to equities over the previous 5 weeks have been the strongest in 2 years, round USD75bn, and:
- inflows to bond funds ($15.2bn) this week additionally accelerated to the
highest in 13 months and have been broad-based
