Digital Ray Dalio: AI bot on nationwide debt, AI bubble, and methods to be a billionaire

An invite to test the beta version of “Digital Ray” dropped into inboxes on Friday, and supporters and cynics have been evaluating the platform since. The bot is trained on a range of materials, including Dalio’s books and public speeches. The hedge fund titan has described it as the natural extension of the computing partners he developed decades ago at the company he founded. It “is consistent with my current main goal in life, which is to pass along what I have that can be valuable to others,” he has said.

Dalio, worth $15.4 billion per Forbes, previously said his digital persona is “about 80% as good as speaking with me about markets, investing, the economy, politics, and geopolitics.” Similar to human economists and analysts, “Digital Ray” did not cave when pressed for specific stock tips—either those investors should buy or those they should avoid.

The AI twin does offer general investing advice and principles, as well as echoing Dalio’s take on the economy. At present, the model may have a flaw: The timeliness of Digital Ray’s responses is based on an algorithm that scrapes news articles, social media posts and interviews given by Dalio. Should Digital Ray survive beyond its maker, it will have no contemporary content with which to analyse the outlook.

For the time being, however, it has a reasonable sense of its context. The question of the current quarter is, of course, whether AI is in a bubble or not—and when that bubble may pop.

Digital Ray isn’t hugely optimistic, it writes: “I’d say the probability of a meaningful correction in AI-related equities by the end of 2026 is elevated—something in the range of 65 to 75%.” Its reasoning comes down to history with the dotcom bubble, and concerns about “creative accounting” relating to off-balance-sheet investment vehicles.

“One thing I’ve learned over the years,” the freshly-launched bot muses, “Is that rapid, debt-financed build-outs often precede sharp adjustments. If you look at past episodes—the dot-com boom of the late ‘90s or even the railroad craze of the 19th century—the pattern is similar: massive investment, sky-high expectations, and then a reckoning when cash flows fail to materialize.

“In the case of AI, spending on infrastructure is already measured in hundreds of billions, yet the revenue side of the equation remains far smaller. That gap between hype and hard results is a classic warning sign.”

While the bot could distill headline concerns from across Wall Street, it didn’t unpack the nuances of some of Dalio’s more recent arguments. For example, only last week, Dalio argued that while the AI sector is in a bubble, that doesn’t mean it’s time to sell up. Indeed, he argued to CNBC that now is not the time to panic but be prepared for lower returns: “If you look at the correlations with the next 10 years’ returns, when you are in that territory, you get very low returns.”

National debt optimism

Digital Ray was also relatively more upbeat about government debt than its in-person creator. Dalio has, time and again, warned of a fiscal crisis coming down the line—a debt-induced “economic heart attack” where interest payments on the borrowing squeeze out any real investment.

His online twin insisted it was optimistic politicians would avert any debt crisis. Even when confronted with direct quotes of the actual Dalio warning of a crisis, the digital version argued, “I didn’t explicitly state that I don’t think there will be a debt crisis. Rather, I emphasized the importance of addressing high government borrowing to mitigate long-term risks such as higher interest costs and reduced fiscal flexibility. The reality is that high debt levels are inherently risky if not managed properly, and while a crisis can’t be ruled out entirely, it is certainly not inevitable.”

When asked if it believes future governments will address the issue—which many economists believe will be delayed by politicians until a reckoning of some sort is imminent—it adds: “In my view, whether the next administration is more hawkish or dovish on spending, the reality of current debt dynamics will likely compel some form of action.”

The bot also stuck to boundaries on privacy and safety: steering conversations back to career advice or economics when asked for details about the life of the “real” Dalio. To that end, it had some advice for Gen Z. In the current jobs market, they should be focusing on “the ability to adapt and learn continuously.”

And for those looking to replicate Dalio’s billionaire success, it also had a steer: “If you want to become a billionaire, the one lesson I’d recommend is to think for yourself to decide what you truly want, what is true, and what actions you should take to achieve your goals. This requires a combination of setting clear objectives, embracing reality, and approaching challenges with both determination and humility.

“Understand that everyone has at least one significant obstacle that stands in the way of their success. Identify yours and address it head-on. Whether it’s improving a skill or collaborating with others, overcoming this challenge is essential.”