Establishing a trendline means having at least three data points. Now we have three data points in drone incursions against U.S. military facilities.
During December 2023 we had 17 days of unrelenting, unchallenged drone swarms over the largest cluster of military facilities in the world, the Hampton Roads/Virginia Beach region of Virginia.
Then starting on November 18, 2024, drone swarms started visiting Picatinny Arsenal in New Jersey, approximately 35 miles to the west of New Jersey. Picatinny is the DOD center for small arms and ammunition.
Now, the three core U.S. Air Force facilities in Europe, Royal Air Force (RAF) Stations Lakenheath, Mildenhall, and Feltwell have experienced drone swarms. One note – it is a long-standing clause of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) that these are called RAF vice U.S. Air Force Bases.
The roar of the non-response to the drone swarms other than aggressive press releases is deafening.
These events are not UFO freak outs nor drone enthusiasts. These are well planned, coordinated, and executed on a large scale.
They lead to the intuitive conclusion, with the initial known evidence on the evidence table, that this is the work of a hostile foreign power or powers.
Many ask on social media, “Why are we not shooting these drones down? “, which is a reasonable question.
Retired CIA Operations Officer Mike Baker said on a recent show (tongue in cheek), “At CIA headquarters we would have the interns run outside and throw classified documents in the air to knock down these drones”.
Unfortunately, it appears Mike’s Concept of Operations (CONOP) would be more effective than what has been done so far.
Were Chinese ships the source of drones in the UK?
With the three installations in the UK, the question is where were these drone swarms staged from?
There are no conspiracies, but no coincidences. The Baltic Sea has become a Chinese lake with the diminished U.S. Navy tied down in the Middle East.
The Chinese are becoming a proxy of their proxy Russia as Chinese ships are regularly breaking undersea infrastructure in the Baltic.
This is Fifth Generation Warfare on steroids as China punches back for US/NATO actions against Russia.
Doing a simple route analysis, the Chinese ships come very close to the East Anglia airfields as they leverage Arctic routes to bypass US Trade Sanctions, or right by the bases if they use the English Channel route.
Some of these ships are bulk carriers, such as the villainous Yi Peng 3, which is currently stopped and surrounded by NATO ships.
But the NewNewPolarBear (a real Chinese ship, not a Seinfeld joke) is a container ship that broke a gas line and two undersea cables in the Baltic in October 2023.
Containers are wonderful to hide opportunities for all kinds of clandestine skullduggery (like the Russian Club-K missile or the container-looking U.S. Typhon Missile system).
Germany’s Rheinmetall is already publicly making what looks to be an ISO compliant container for drones.
For a logistician, planner, or operator in clandestine operations, the container makes perfect sense.
A Chinese ship could turn off its Automatic Identification System, go dark, do the mission, move away and turn back on its AIS.
Domestic drone defense is a far different game than combat zone drone defense
The social media responses are often profanity-laced versions of “shoot it down”. Not so fast. The flights are often taking place over residential areas.
A Centurion system spewing out 20mm cannon shells is not a viable option. Anyone who wants to volunteer their house to test this option is welcome.
This is not the desert in Iraq or Syria. A more sophisticated CONOP has to be applied, more along the layered defense mode of Iron Dome operations in Israel. There are three basic issues to address in counter-drone CONOPS in the U.S.:
Surveillance: Anything that emits radio frequency (RF) energy to surveil the protected facility is almost a non-starter from the beginning. The American domestic RF space is a complex gridlock, and any new RF capability will take years to pass the Federal Communications Commission obstacle course to ensure it does not cause mayhem with air traffic and residential electronics. The Surveillance solution will have to be passive. The Chinese AI enabled, spinning electro-optic is a good starting point for passive surveillance – the U.S. needs to develop an analogue with alacrity.
Notification: There should be two parts to the Notification part of the CONOP. First is the ability of Federal, State, and Local entities to rapidly notify and share information on the situation. The Federal Government, especially the Department of Defense has effectively no authority to do anything beyond the fence line of the facility so a tight, mature, information sharing process needs to be implemented for a coordinated response. Like the Israeli Iron Dome model, there should be a return to the past with air raid sirens as well as an amber alert, so all know to take shelter during an engagement.
Neutralization: This is where innovation is really needed. Guns, missiles, and rockets spew deadly debris and shrapnel. Trained raptors cannot take on the larger drones being reported. Nets are a silly idea. Jammers have a similar challenge because of the RF emission issue. Lasers and very targeted and focused jammers make the most sense, but there is still the issue of falling debris from the drone. Elon, Vivek, thoughts?
DOGE should drive the feckless Inter-Agency process to closure on domestic drone defense
Why has this issue run circles around the U.S. Government? The simple answer: the U.S. Government has not figured out the process and procedures to respond to drone swarms in the domestic airspace.
What Department is responsible for what needs to be resolved.
The issue has been bogged down in the U.S. Government Inter-Agency process for years. The U.S. Government flails until roles and missions have been defined, assigned, and resources apportioned.
The domestic counter-drone issue is largely mired and ensnared in the domestic airspace usage issues for drone delivery of packages and urban air mobility concepts (Uber in the air) industry is pushing.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is kind of in the driver’s seat leading the inter-agency debate.
Domestic counter-drone policy and plans is a perfect opportunity and test case for Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy and the Department of Government Efficiencies (DOGE).
Elon and Vivek can get the Inter-Agency rowing at ramming speed. Starting January 20, 2025, DOGE can lead the Inter-Agency to a solution within 45 days (or less).
All viewpoints are personal and do not reflect the viewpoints of any organization.
