All 72 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Bank of England to lower rates to 4.75% next week but what happens at the subsequent meeting on December 19 is far less certain.
Of the 72, there are 46 who predict no change and 26 predict a cut. The majority expecting a hold runs counter to market pricing, which is 82% for a December cut, and higher than that if you assume the BOE delivers next week.
Through the end of 2025, the OIS market prices in 125 bps in rate cuts, which would still leave the BOE at 3.75%.
The pound is up 25 pips to 1.2984 today.
