ES Futures Today with assistance from commerceCompass

Scalping Short Idea for ES Futures Ahead of Nvidia Earnings

As market participants anticipate Nvidia’s earnings report, we see a grinding upward movement in ES (S&P 500 e-mini futures), currently trading at 6,000.5 at the time of this analysis. Given that major market-moving events often limit strong directional movement until after the news is released, traders can look for opportunities to fade moves and trade within a range.

Unlike a typical Trade Compass setup that seeks continuation, today’s analysis focuses on a scalping short opportunity, with precision-based entries and partial exits while allowing room for potential larger moves.

Key Price Levels for the Short Setup

• Current Price: 6,000.5
• Dynamic Value Area High (VAH) of Today: 6,001.5
• Point of Control (POC) from Two Days Ago: ~6,002
• VWAP High from Yesterday: 6,008.75
• 2nd Upper Standard Deviation of VWAP from Yesterday: 6,010.5

Short Entry: 6,009.50

• This level is positioned just below key liquidity areas, making it an optimal point to fade the move if price taps into liquidity pockets above.
• A tight stop at 6,019.50 is placed just above a high-volume node (HVN) from two days ago, reducing risk while maximizing reward potential.

Profit Targets for Partial Exits

1. 6,000.00 – A round number magnet that often gets revisited when breached.
2. 5,992.50 – Just above yesterday’s Value Area High (5,990.25) and near VWAP at the time of this analysis.
3. 5,972.25 – Above yesterday’s VWAP & Point of Control (POC) at 5,970.75, serving as a deeper range test.
4. 5,947.00 (Stretch Target) – Just above yesterday’s Value Area Low (VAL), for traders anticipating a larger downside move.

Strategy & Market Context

• Why Fade? The market is likely to stay within a range ahead of NVDA earnings, and this leg up provides an opportunity to fade into resistance levels with defined risk.
• Not a Classic Trade Compass Setup: Unlike a trend-following approach, this setup capitalizes on pre-event hesitation, expecting liquidity tests and price reversions.
• Partial Profit-Taking: Scalpers should not hold for the full move but secure profits at each level while possibly keeping a small position for a larger move if momentum picks up.

Cross-Market Considerations

This setup can be used in coordination with your stock positions:

• If indices start reversing down (see above at what level to wait for), consider taking partial or full profits on long positions in stocks like Tesla (TSLA), AMD, or other tech names that have been rallying pre-market.
• Traders with broader market exposure may monitor ES levels for additional confirmation before adjusting positions.

A Tactical Short Play: Fading the Pre-Nvidia Earnings Drift in ES Futures

This is a scalping idea for ES day traders (but can also aid swing traders that are seeking entries or partial profit prices, for them to conisder) based on the market structure and positioning ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. The tight stop and staggered take-profit levels allow for a balanced approach, minimizing risk while capturing potential downside movement within a pre-event range.

Trade at your own risk, use this as a guideline alongside your own market view and trading strategy. For more tradeCompass insights, visit ForexLive.com.