The EURUSD is running to a new high for the day up to 1.10597. That has now taken the price of the pair above its 200-hour MA at 1.10563. Traders will be looking for more upside momentum on the break.
The price is also moving away from the 100-hour MA AND the broken 38.2% of the August trading range. Both come in at 1.10389.
Yesterday the price moved back below 38.2% with the natural support at 1.3000 and 50% of the August range as the next targets.
The price low yesterday came in at 1.3001- just above the natural support target at 1.3000 – but well short of the 50% at 1.0988.
The rise today, came in the European session and got a boost from the ECB source comments that an October cut was unlikely and December needed more weakness in growth to persuade the ECB to act. Near the same WSJ Timiraos spoke to the dilemma of 25 or 50 bps for the Fed, but it put 50 bps back on the table for next weeks meeting. As a result, the USD has seen some added weakness.
For traders, looking for more upside the 100 hour MA and 38.2% is now risk. The best case technically is to trade above and below the 200 hour MA without approacing the lower 100-hour MA.
If that can be done a move above 1.10762 would have traders looking toward an old swing area between 1.1097 and 1.1104.
