The EURUSD is trading lower as yields push higher following the FOMC rate decision and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The move in rates is keeping the USD bid, with the 2-year yield up 9.3 basis points and approaching the 4.00% level. Meanwhile, the 10-year yield has extended further above both 4.25% and 4.00%, currently trading near 4.417%.
Adding to the pressure, crude oil prices have surged sharply—up 7.15% on the day, marking the largest gain since April 2—which is reinforcing inflation concerns and helping to drive yields even higher.
From a technical perspective, the EURUSD has broken below its 100-day moving average at 1.1675, shifting the bias more to the downside. The low reached 1.1662 before modest buyers stepped in, pushing the pair back toward resistance.
That resistance now comes into focus at:
- The 200-day moving average
- The 38.2% retracement of the move up from the March low near 1.1681
Bias / Risk / Targets:
- Bias: Bearish below the 100-day MA
- Risk: A move back above the 200-day MA and retracement level would tilt control back toward buyers
- Targets: Holding below keeps sellers in control, with scope for further downside momentum
If the price can reclaim those resistance levels, the downside break would start to look like a failed move—opening the door for a corrective bounce higher.
