Seems like everyone wants to get in the gold crowded Long. Even Goldman Sachs says to buy gold and sell oil, but what about our Euro traders and investors? EURUSD continues to trade in a technically sensitive zone, where order flow dynamics reveal more than standard price charts alone. While spot price action may appear orderly, under-the-hood execution tells a clearer story about who is in control and where the pressure points lie.
Using orderFlow Intel, which tracks buy and sell aggression, delta behavior, and value acceptance, we can frame the current EURUSD environment as one that still leans bearish, unless proven otherwise by sustained acceptance above key reference levels.
EURUSD Tecnical Analysis and Bigger Picture: Distribution, Not Accumulation
From a higher-level perspective, order flow suggests that EURUSD has been distributing rather than building a base.
Key observations:
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Buying activity has become less efficient, requiring more volume to achieve less upside progress.
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Value has gradually migrated lower instead of expanding upward.
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Positive delta bursts have repeatedly failed to translate into sustained acceptance at higher prices.
This combination typically reflects seller control through absorption, not panic selling, but persistent enough to keep rallies capped.
In short, the market is not collapsing, but it is also not preparing for a clean bullish continuation.
Another technical analysis perspective, the 1hr chart below for EURUSD futures, shows price activated te bear flag (yellow channel broken to the downside) and price travelling in a downtrend, shown via the pitchfork below.
1hr chart of EURUSD futures. Bear flag activated.
EURO USD Lower-Timeframe Insight: Execution Confirms the Bias
Zooming into the lower-level order flow reveals how this weakness is expressing itself intraday.
What stands out:
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Multiple pullbacks show little to no buyer defense at the lows.
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Temporary positive delta readings appear reactive, not initiative-driven.
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After brief bounces, selling pressure quickly reasserts itself.
This behavior supports a sell-the-rally environment, rather than a buy-the-dip one, as long as price remains below key VWAP-based references.
Key Levels That Matter Right Now for EURUSD Futures (6E1!)
Several levels stand out as decision points, not predictions.
1. 1.18135 – Yesterday’s VWAP
This level acts as a line in the sand for the bearish case.
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As long as price remains below and rejected from this level, downside scenarios remain valid.
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Sustained acceptance above yesterday’s VWAP would challenge the bearish premise and signal that sellers are losing control.
This is not about a quick spike above, but about holding and building value above it.
2. 1.1806 – Today’s VWAP
This is a near-term execution level.
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If price retraces upward toward 1.1806 and shows weak buying response, it could act as a potential short-entry area to consider.
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From an order flow perspective, this level often attracts both liquidity and algorithmic interest.
As always, execution decisions are at your own risk, and confirmation matters.
3. 1.18 – Semi-Round Psychological Level
The 1.18 handle carries psychological and structural significance.
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Repeated interaction around this area increases its importance.
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A clean break below with acceptance would strengthen the bearish continuation case.
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Failure to break, followed by strong acceptance above VWAP levels, would weaken it.
Markets often rotate around such semi-round numbers before committing to direction.
What Would Change the Bias for the Bearish Bias on EURUSD?
For EURUSD to shift away from its current bearish tilt, orderFlow Intel would need to show:
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Sustained positive delta with improving efficiency.
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Clear buyer defense at pullbacks.
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Value building and holding above yesterday’s VWAP.
Until then, rallies are suspect, and patience favors waiting for price to come to key reference levels rather than chasing moves.
Final Thoughts for Euro Traders and Investors
EURUSD is currently offering a structured environment for decision support, not a high-conviction breakout. OrderFlow Intel suggests that sellers still have the upper hand, but also defines clear invalidation points.
For traders, this means focusing on context, levels, and confirmation, not prediction.
For investors, it highlights a market that remains fragile near resistance, rather than one that has decisively turned higher.
As always, this analysis is a decision-support tool, not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Visit investingLive.com for additional views.
