The EUR/USD moved higher on Thursday after buyers leaned against the 100- and 200-hour moving averages (MAs), supported by weaker-than-expected initial jobless claims, which triggered USD selling. This upward move comes ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report, a key event that could either confirm or challenge the narrative of a weakening labor market.
Non-farm payrolls are expected to show a gain of 200K, with the unemployment rate projected to tick up to 4.2%. Last month’s report disappointed with a gain of just 12K. Given the importance of this data for price action, key levels will determine whether buyers retain control or if the short- to medium-term bias shifts back to the downside.
Key Levels to Watch:
Upside:
- 1.0592–1.06097: A ceiling formed since November 11. A break above this range would signal further bullish momentum.
- 1.0634: The 50% midpoint of November’s trading range, a critical resistance level beyond the ceiling.
- 1.0661: The 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart. The last time EUR/USD traded above this level was on October 1.
Downside:
- 1.05628: The 38.2% retracement of November’s range. Failure to hold above this level could signal bearish pressure.
- 1.05296–1.0517: A cluster of moving averages, including:
- The 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart
- The 200-hour MA
- The 100-hour MA
Earlier this week, the 100-hour MA acted as resistance on four separate occasions before the price moved above it on Wednesday and Thursday. Notably, Thursday’s rally was supported by a bounce from this moving average. If the price breaks below this cluster, it would likely increase the bearish bias.
