- 2023 was a ‘corridor of fame’ 12 months on inflation discount
- General CPI inflation in Dec was fairly near what was anticipated
- Housing inflation was rather less favorable than anticipated
- Persistently excessive shelter inflation CPI might have much less implication for Fed’s private consumption expenditures goal
- Inflation would be the main determinant of when and the way a lot rates of interest needs to be minimize
- The Fed nonetheless has weeks and months of information to return
- Cannot reply the query of what we’ll do at March assembly with out knowledge
- Fed to this point is on golden path, although it might be derailed
- Not like a 12 months in the past, the dangers to golden path are on either side
- Dangers embrace persistent housing inflation, potential provide shocks
In the event you would have given me the CPI numbers and at present’s schedule of audio system, I in all probability would have anticipated one thing extra hawkish. However all three of them have been dismissive of the upper inflation.
This text was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
