- Official data so far reveals only modest impact of tariffs on prices, activity, labor market.
- If the Fed cuts in September and tariff effect shows up later, could pause rate cuts.
- Inflation boost is likely coming, but actual inflation indicates renewed progress towards 2% target.
- More time is needed to determine if effects of trade war are delayed, or if it will be smaller than thought.
- Emphasis must be on actual inflation, real economic data without committing to an easing policy path in case tariff effects delayed.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
