- We are committed to getting inflation back to 2% on a sustained basis
- There is tension between our two objectives
- We haven’t really seen the downside risks to a large balance sheet
- Policy in a good place to wait and see how current situation plays out
- Tariffs likely a one-time increase adding between 0.5% and 1.0% to inflation
- Tendency is to look through supply shocks but must keep an eye on inflation expectations
- Monitoring inflation expectations very carefully, appear to be well anchored
We are getting close to the point where Powell is a lame duck. He still has two meetings as Chair and we don’t know if he will stay on as Governor but Warsh’s words (if he ever speaks) will carry more weight going forward. The Fed funds futures market is pricing in a small chance of rate cuts late this year after pricing in a 50% chance of a hike at one point last week.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
