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Forexlive Americas FX information wrap 8 Jul: USD combined as markets continued to digest tariffs

The USD is ending the day mixed vs the major currencies. The USD gained versus the following major currencies:

  • JPY, +0.43%
  • GBP +0.09%
  • NZD +0.02%

The USD fell versus the following currencies:

  • EUR -0.14%
  • CHF -0.30%
  • AUD -0.57%

The USD was virtually unchanged on the day vs the CAD.

The AUDUSD was the biggest mover as traders reacted to the RBA’s decision to keep rates unchanged. The expectation was for a decline of 25 basis points.

The EURUSD moved down in the US session after rising earlier in the day, but found willing sellers against the 100-hour MA. The move to the downside reached into the swing area between 1.1663 to 1.1693. That level goes back to April to November 2021. The low reached 1.1682 before bouncing higher. On the top side, the 100 and 200-hour moving averages are near converged at 1.1755.

In tariff news, the US will likely send out letters to another 15-20 countries over the next few days. The letters are what Pres. Trump outlined as tariff deal levels. In addition, Trump announced higher tariffs on a sectorial basis, including pharmaceuticals of up to 100% or more to be phased in. He also announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, a policy shift that has sharply altered supply expectations. .

Copper had its largest intraday since 1989. The price surged 13.3% to close at $5.645 per pound, marking a new all-time high for the front-month contract and surpassing the previous record set in March. This move also represents the largest single-day percentage gain on record.

US stocks are ending the day little changed with the Dow down -0.37%. The S&P index fell -0.7% while the NASDAQ index rose a modest 0.03%. The small-cap Russell 2000 did perform the best with a gain of 0.66%.

Interest rates are mixed with the short and marginally lower in the longer end marginally higher:

  • 2-year yield 3.898%, -0.4 basis points
  • 5-year yield 3.977%, +1.2 basis points
  • 10 year yield 4.403%, +0.8 point basis points
  • 30 year yield 4.925%, -0.5 basis points

Crude oil continued its move to the upside price currently at $68.28 up $0.35 or 0.52%. The high price did move intraday above its 200 day moving average at $68.37 but backed off a bit. The 200 day moving average will be a key barometer for both buyers and sellers going forward.

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