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Former Fed Kaplan. September is a chance, however Fed nonetheless expects the Fed to be affected person

Goldman vice chairman and former Dallas Fed president Kaplan speaking on CNBC

  • That won’t take action at June and July meetings
  • But do not be surprised to hear some hawkish splash patient rhetoric
  • expect the Fed will work hard to maintain its flexibility
  • If at the Fed, I am in a risk management position
  • I think the next move not known likely be down not up but the timing is
  • I would like to see inflation moderately improve between now and September.
  • Fiscal spending is more moderate but still running spending programs.
  • Fed does not want to see real acceleration in inflation
  • We have a jump in labor’s market because of immigration
  • Fed was very late to raise rates – up to 20 months.
  • I think that the Fed may be a meeting or so late to cut
  • The Fed may not get it perfectly right, but they will get a rate
  • I expect the dark play meeting to be one cut, maybe a little more with a hawkish commitment
  • I think the Fed would be well served to bear on the side of hawkishness
  • The market and the Fed are not too far off.
  • See Fed funds rate at the end of the year 4 3/4 – 5%
  • Think the 10-year rate would be higher then 3.5% by the end of year. Does not put a level on the 10 year.
  • Growth in the US will have to come from productivity unless have more immigration
  • It always matter who is in the seats at the Fed
  • I think have Powell until the end of 2025

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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