There is an increasingly-clear picture of a French parliament with a hard split between the left and right, leaving the centrists as the kingmakers.
it takes 289 seats to achieve an absolute majority and the latest poll from IFOP projects:
- Far right National Rally at 210-240 seats
- Left wing New Popular Front at 170-200 seats
- Macron’s centrists at 95-125 seats
I’d expect the centrists to break right but in time I expect that will give voters comfort with Le Pen, who will take the Presidency in a couple years.
I would expect some positive reaction from French stock markets once the dust settles but less so in the euro.
