- Prior +1.8%
- HICP +2.1% vs +2.1% y/y prelim
- Prior +2.0%
- Core CPI 2.5% y/y
No changes to the preliminary estimates here. The reaction to the data was muted as expected given no surprises and no influence on ECB’s policy outlook.
The agency notes: “The rise in overall consumer prices intensified at the start of the year. In particular, the price of food increased more in January than in the previous months. In the months from September to December 2025, the price increase observed for food was still lower than overall inflation. Furthermore, the increase in service prices continues to drive up inflation in January.”
The market doesn’t expect the ECB to adjust interest rates this year although we’ve been seeing a slow dovish repricing since the start of the year due to some easing in inflation and policymakers’ attention to the exchange rate after the euro broke above the 1.20 handle versus the US dollar.
