Gold sellers took more control last week after the price broke below the 100- and 200-hour moving averages on Monday. The buyers could not reclaim those moving averages, and by Wednesday, the price began to accelerate to the downside.
That sequence is important from a technical perspective. A break below the moving averages gives sellers the initial advantage. Staying below them—and then moving farther away from them—shows that buyers are struggling to take back control. Last week, the sellers got their break and followed through.
The decline extended below the early October low near $4064 on Thursday before finding a bottom near $3975. The price bounced into the end of the week, but the recovery left sellers with the stronger hand and buyers with more work to do.
The good news for buyers? The decline reached a swing area between $3975 and $3996, and that area attracted buying interest. Below that zone, the swing low from late June at $3942 remains another important downside target.
Those levels now help define the next move. If sellers want to extend the decline, they need to push below the swing area and stay below it. A break would then put the June low at $3942 in play. Getting below that level would open the door for further selling.
Today’s price action shows that buyers are still willing to defend support, although the trading has been choppy.
The early low reached $3978.18, within the $3975–$3996 swing area, before buyers pushed the price up to $4026.79. That rally subsequently reversed, sending gold back toward $3988. Buyers stepped in again, and the price has since recovered to around $4017.66.
So there is a battle taking place. Buyers have leaned against the swing area on two separate dips today. That gives them a level to define and limit risk against. However, holding support is only the first step. They still need to show they can break above resistance and sustain a recovery.
The first upside hurdle is today’s high at $4026.79. A move above that level—and the ability to stay above it—would strengthen the short-term recovery and give buyers a little more confidence.
Beyond that, the more important resistance comes near $4064.39–$4066. That area combines the broken early October low at $4064.39 with the falling 100-hour moving average near $4066.
When an old support level lines up with a moving average, it creates a clearer reference point for both buyers and sellers. Sellers can lean against the area to define risk. Buyers need to get above it to show that the recovery is gaining traction. Until that happens, a bounce can still be viewed as a correction within the broader move lower.
For now, sellers retain the technical advantage, but buyers are making a stand near support. Stay above $3975–$3996, and the buyers have a foundation to build on. Break below it, and the focus shifts toward $3942. On the topside, getting above $4026.79 would be encouraging, but reclaiming $4064.39–$4066 would be a more meaningful step toward taking back control.
