Fundamental
Overview
Yesterday, we got the US
ISM Manufacturing PMI and even though the headline number missed expectations, under
the hood the report was better than the prior month. The bad news was new
orders falling further into contraction, which is a proxy for demand, and it’s
generally considered as a leading indicator.
What weighed the most on
gold might have been the selloff in the stock market. Gold generally suffers
when there’s a notable selloff in the stock market as that tightens financial conditions.
The technicals should give a better picture in the next days as we get more
data.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Gold Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold fell to the support zone around the 2480 level. This is where we
can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to
position for a rally into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price falling below the 2480 level and the recent low at 2470 to
increase the bearish bets into the 2430 level next.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
Gold 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the range between the 2480 support and the 2530 resistance.
The price is now breaking below the 2480 level, but we still have the low at
2470 that could offer support, so the buyers will likely place their stops
below that level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
falling below the 2470 level to position for a drop into the 2430 level.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
Gold 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline defining the current bearish
momentum. If the price pulls back to the trendline, we can expect the sellers
to lean on it to position for a break below the 2470 level. The buyers, on the
other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish
bets into the 2530 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we have the US Job Openings. Tomorrow, we get the US Jobless Claims
figures and the ISM Services PMI. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with
the US NFP report.
