Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to USD 4,900 per ounce (from a prior USD 4,300). This upward revision underscores growing confidence in the metal’s long-term upside amid structural tailwinds.

The bank’s rationale likely includes several reinforcing factors:

Strong central bank demand — many sovereign and institutional buyers continue accumulating gold as part of reserve diversification and de-dollarisation strategies.
Expects central bank gold buying to average 80 tonnes in 2025 and 70 tonnes in 2026, and said, “We see risks to our upgraded gold price forecast as still skewed to the upside on net.”
EM central banks likely to continue structural diversification of their reserves into gold
Macro and policy pressures — concerns about inflation, monetary accommodation (especially in the U.S.), and geopolitical risk may bolster gold’s appeal as a haven.
Limited speculative influence — Goldman tends to emphasise that most of the recent rally has come from persistent structural demand (central banks, ETFs) rather than aggressive speculative flows.
Valuation buffer — pushing the target from 4,300 to 4,900 gives room for upside surprises if conditions (e.g. Fed policy, currency weakness) evolve favorably.
GS see risks to their upgraded forecast as still skewed to upside

It’s worth noting that such a forecast is ambitious and assumes a continuation or intensification of the supportive drivers. If any of them falter — for example, if interest rates stay higher for longer, or capital markets reprice risk differently — gold could fall short of that level.

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Goldman’s upward revision highlights continued institutional and central-bank appetite for gold, reinforcing bullish sentiment across the commodities complex. The higher forecast could boost inflows into precious-metal ETFs and miners, while signalling expectations for softer real rates and a weaker dollar ahead.