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Growth & Total Return Weekly Chat

This is the forum for Growth & Total Return discussion on Seeking Alpha. A new chat begins every two weeks, and all previous blogs are listed in chronological succession on the main chat page. We won’t be doing any comment cleanup in the new chat, and users will always be able to refer back to previous discussions.

More on Today’s Markets:

With more financial and business data available, as well as these two news items that change my rating, I decided to prepare this follow-up coverage. I won’t keep you waiting for the verdict, so I’ll state it right from the get-go. I’m upgrading TSLA to a Hold.

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) will report its upcoming earnings results next week, on March 18th. Thanks to the massive tailwinds for the memory industry from the ongoing Artificial Intelligence boom, Micron will show strong revenue and earnings growth, and I believe that there is a good chance that Micron will outperform expectations once again. Shares have soared over the last year, but are not looking expensive based on current profit estimates.

Let’s start directly with the biggest news. Nvidia is planning a $2 billion investment into Nebius as part of a strategic collaboration, and I know that this looks like a massive validation for the market, but as a long-time Nvidia shareholder, I look at this partnership slightly more realistically. Shares of Nebius went up 10% on the news, but Nvidia stock stayed flat because this is not a big deal for this company.

President Trump famously has used the word “rigged” to describe certain political theater. You can believe what you like. Given that this company has two Trump sons involved, which has gotten negative press already, I wanted to address that point right away.

If my rating was any spoiler, it’s that I admire the MOAT that PLTR has amassed, but there are concerns that make me reconsider and stray away from the clearly bullish views that most on Seeking Alpha seem to have on it currently. Its reliance on tax-deferred assets to artificially lower the tax rate will, as it’s now consistently profitable, lead to a large one time tax expense. Once realized, it might cause the stock price to fall below the vesting price levels issued for the RSUs last year, triggering additional share dilution. Couple this with the clearly stretched valuation, and I think you’d have a perfectly reasonable bear case here.

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