Germany CPI year-on-year (%)
It will be a busy one on the economic calendar today in Europe. The preliminary Q2 GDP numbers will be key ones to watch but I would wager the inflation numbers from Germany and Spain to be the more crucial element for the ECB to consider at this stage.
The estimate is for headline annual inflation to come in at 2.2% in Germany for the month of July. That means it will be unchanged compared to the June reading. However, core annual inflation was still seen at 2.9% last month. The overall disinflation process remains intact but moving at a very gradual pace in the last few months.
As such, the ECB can’t quite claim victory yet nor rest on their laurels in pre-committing to a move in September. That’s pretty much the situation right now. So, let’s see if the numbers here will support the narrative for a rate cut after the summer.
Here’s the agenda for today:
- 0800 GMT – North Rhine Westphalia
- 0800 GMT – Hesse
- 0800 GMT – Bavaria
- 0800 GMT – Baden Wuerttemberg
- 0800 GMT – Saxony
- 1200 GMT – Germany national preliminary figures
Do note that the releases don’t exactly follow the schedule at times and may be released a little earlier or later.
