Very similar to Susie Izzard (Drink!) says chiropractors “LIVE FOR THE NOISE!” I too stay for the noise of the offseason. We are able to’t get way more than Shohei Ohtani and his reps donated to us, or not less than their strategies of sending the baseball press into orbit did. There needs to be way more to come back, however the greatest transfer to be made is now on paper (although the Dodgers nonetheless haven’t mentioned a lot), what is going to really occur on the sphere?
It appears a dumbass query, provided that L.A. simply added the perfect hitter within the league final yr to a lineup that already had the fourth- and sixth-best hitter from final season, when it comes to wRC+. That’s an totally terrifying 1-3 for any pitcher beginning a sport or reliever who’s going to should navigate it with the sport on the road late.
Nonetheless, there are a few small elements to think about right here when interested by the Dodgers going 130-32 or one thing silly. One, the Dodgers really had a reasonably respectable DH final season and two, was Ohtani’s 2023 one thing of an outlier?
Take it so as. Final summer time, J.D. Martinez manned the DH spot for almost all of the season. And whereas he could also be three days older than water, he was nonetheless fairly efficient. Martinez slashed .271/.321/.579 for a 135 wRC+. Clearly, that’s probably not all that near Ohtani’s MVP season, but it surely’s nonetheless fairly efficient. There are definitely extra wins coming from Ohtani taking the DH ABs than Martinez. However Martinez’s season shouldn’t be all that removed from what had been the traditional Ohtani season earlier than 2023, and that is the place there’s one thing of a rub. Nicely, not a rub. A lightweight pat, possibly.
Ohtani’s 2023, as entertaining and stupid-ridiculous because it was, shouldn’t be regular in an entire host of how. And considered one of them was that it wasn’t a traditional Ohtani season on the plate. That doesn’t imply Ohtani hadn’t been a fantastic hitter earlier than, however he hadn’t been something just like the celestial being he was final season. In Ohtani’s earlier full campaigns (at all times throw out 2020), his wRC+ outputs had been 149, 120, 150, and 142. Final yr it was 180. These earlier 4 marks are nonetheless borderline MVP numbers in some years, however clearly, his 2023 is simply one thing fully totally different. Sure, Ohtani has two MVPs, however his first in 2021 was due to his twin risk as a pitcher, as Bryce Harper, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, and Fernando Tatis Jr. all had higher offensive seasons than he did then.
Even the traditional Ohtani season is an enchancment on what Martinez did for the Dodgers final yr, but it surely really isn’t a large leap. The query turns into if Ohtani’s .433 wOBA in 2023 is now the brand new regular.
It may very well be. Ohtani hit the ball tougher than he ever had final season, seeing his common exit velocity bounce two full MPH to 94.4 in addition to jumps in his barrel-rate and hard-hit fee. You don’t want the numbers to let you know that Ohtani spent the season turning baseballs into flubber, however that’s the info.
There wasn’t a lot change in Ohtani’s strategy, swinging at nearly the identical variety of pitches out and in of the zone as we’d seen beforehand in his profession. The massive distinction was the work that Ohtani did on pitches high and away from him in the zone, and pitches above the strike zone. It was once that pitchers may very well be considerably secure heading for 10 o’clock within the strike zone (from the catcher’s perspective), the place Ohtani solely hit .305 and solely slugged .385 in 2022, and .286 and .357 in 2021. Final yr, these numbers turned .440 and 1.000. That’s an issue for America.
Ohtani additionally crushed pitches above the zone, which he had by no means finished earlier than, slugging .704 on pitches above the zone and inside and .534 on pitches above the zone and outdoors. He didn’t even crack .200 on any of these measures in 2022. Ohtani simply determined he wasn’t going to get beat up within the zone or above it.
Is {that a} technique that works as he heads into his 30s? That’s normally when batters begin to wrestle with the regularly growing velocity they see from pitchers. However clearly, Ohtani is an alien and never on the mercy of regular human deficiencies. No less than, that’s the working concept.
There’s additionally the well being issue. Ohtani has solely performed a full slate of video games as a hitter in two of his 5 seasons. So if Ohtani had been to revert again to the “really good hitter” type as an alternative of his “Ares on meth” of 2023 whereas coping with accidents which have type of turn out to be customized, properly, it’s nonetheless an enchancment by a measurable margin on what the Dodgers had final yr. It’s simply not leaping over Springfield Gorge.
There’s additionally the query of decline from both or each Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. Freeman is coming into his age-34 season, having simply set a career-high in wRC+. Betts had his second-best season ever at age 30. All three of those guys are more likely to be within the MVP dialogue, however all three may also simply not be what they had been in 2023 as a result of it’s actually onerous to be what they had been in 2023.
Look, this isn’t meant to be one thing that Diamondbacks or Giants followers print out, chop up, and snort. The Dodgers are going to be superb subsequent yr and we will say that earlier than they commerce for Tyler Glasnow, signal Yoshinobu Yamamoto, reanimate Warren Spahn, clone Corey Seager from some DNA they nonetheless have mendacity across the clubhouse, and get the Mariners to promote them Julio Rodriguez for a lifetime provide of Reese’s, and the six different issues they’ll most likely do. We’re simply speaking a couple of workforce that wins 100 video games on the reg, and can accomplish that once more. That simply could be all they do. Which is a reasonably unhappy factor for any rival to hope for, however that’s the place MLB is lately.
After which Ohtani will get again on the mound in 2025 and all of us die.
Comply with Sam on Twitter @Felgate and on Bluesky @Felgate.bsky.social
