A latest examine spearheaded by Lucas Nuzzi, Head of R&D at CoinMetrics, has dropped at gentle detailed insights into the monetary viability of launching a 51% assault on the blockchain giants, Bitcoin and Ethereum. Printed beneath the title “Breaking BFT,” this analysis delves deep into the economics and logistical challenges of such assaults, providing a nuanced understanding of blockchain safety.

How A lot Is A 51% Assault On Bitcoin?

Nuzzi took to X (previously Twitter) to share the examine’s findings, emphasizing the prevalent issues throughout the crypto group in regards to the networks’ vulnerabilities. He remarked, “The mere possibility of these types of attacks has caused significant anxiety… These are the boogieman of blockchain security but their costs and expected utility remain a mystery.”

How a lot does it price to 51% assault Bitcoin and Ethereum?

To search out out, we simulated what an assault would appear like.

Our paper, Breaking BFT, was printed as we speak with some attention-grabbing outcomes ⬇️https://t.co/fpcpkPhy5B pic.twitter.com/wMbm6b2v0Z

— Lucas Nuzzi (@LucasNuzzi) February 15, 2024

The examine introduces a brand new analytical framework, the Whole Value to Assault (TCA), which sums up the bills an attacker would incur in orchestrating a 51% assault. For Bitcoin, this entails buying a majority of ASIC miners and overlaying the operational prices, together with electrical energy. Using information from MINE-MATCH and historic ASIC market tendencies, the analysis unveils that the price of procuring the required ASICs might surge to $20 billion. Nuzzi additional defined, “But these ASICs are not for sale!… In one scenario, that cost alone is close to $20 Billion.”

Furthermore, the examine explored the hypothetical state of affairs of a nation-state manufacturing ASICs for an assault. It concluded that “the only model that could be plausibly reverse-engineered is the S9, with a manufacturing cost north of $20B.” This highlights not simply the monetary, but in addition the technical hurdles in mounting such an assault.

How A lot Is A 51% Assault On Ethereum?

Turning its consideration to Ethereum, the examine estimates an assault price of over $34 billion. This determine accounts for the necessity to handle over 200 nodes and spend $1 million USD on Amazon Net Companies [AWS] alone, showcasing the advanced logistics concerned in an Ethereum assault.

The examine states, “Contrary to popular belief, an attacker could not leverage LSDs to buy access to block templates… We estimate an attack on Ethereum would take 6 months due to the churn limit preventing stake from being deployed all at once.”

Nuzzi’s analysis additionally critically assesses the potential income from attacking Bitcoin or Ethereum, contemplating varied methods resembling double spends and MEV exploits. It concludes that “Most importantly, we find no ways the attacker would be able to profit from attacking Bitcoin or Ethereum,” underscoring the financial disincentives for such assaults.

Maybe probably the most placing discovering is the empirical proof supporting the existence of a Nash Equilibrium within the safety dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Nuzzi posits, “This is the first empirical evidence of Nash Equilibrium in Bitcoin and Ethereum where adversarial actions become unattractive when compared to other strategies.”

In essence, the examine not solely quantifies the monumental prices related to potential 51% assaults on Bitcoin and Ethereum but in addition reaffirms the energy of their safety mechanisms. By offering a complete financial evaluation, it dispels many uncertainties surrounding blockchain safety, contributing to a deeper understanding of the resilience and robustness of those networks in opposition to potential threats.

At press time, BTC traded at $52,068.