Ichiro may very well be unanimous, others on the fence in Hall of Fame voting

If Ichiro Suzuki misses unanimous election to the Baseball Hall of Fame, it would be by a handful of votes at most.

For Carlos Beltran, CC Sabathia and Billy Wagner, a handful of votes may determine whether any or all of them join Suzuki as a member of the Hall of Fame Class of 2025.

Suzuki is expected to sail into Cooperstown while Beltran, Sabathia and Wagner will learn their fates Tuesday, when the results of the Baseball Hall of Fame voting are announced on MLB Network.

Anyone who receives 75 percent of the vote — cast by eligible members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America — necessary for induction will be inducted along with Dave Parker and the late Dick Allen in a ceremony scheduled for July 27 in Cooperstown, N.Y.

Parker and Allen were elected by the 16-member Classic Baseball Era Committee on Dec. 8.

There will be no wait for Suzuki, who will become the first Hall of Famer born in Japan and may become the first position player to earn unanimous election. New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera, who received all 425 votes in 2019, is the only unanimous inductee.

Suzuki played nine seasons in his native country and didn’t sign with the Seattle Mariners until he was 27 years old. But he won the American League MVP and Rookie of the Year in 2001, when he posted the first of 10 consecutive seasons in which he hit .300 and collected at least 200 hits. He finished with a .311 average and 3,089 hits while winning 10 Gold Gloves and making 10 All-Star teams.

Through early Monday afternoon, Suzuki’s name was checked off on all of the 177 ballots submitted to Ryan Thibodaux’s Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker, which tabulates the votes of the BBWAA members who have made their ballots public.

Rivera’s longtime teammate, Derek Jeter, came closest to unanimous election amongst position players when he was named on all but one ballot in 2020.

The early returns are also encouraging for Sabathia, who is on the ballot for the first time, and Wagner, who is appearing for the 10th and final time. Per the Tracker, Sabathia has received 93.6 percent of the known vote while Wagner has been named on 84.6 percent of the public ballots.

That leaves both candidates comfortably within the margin of error that generally exists between Tracker polling and the full balloting. The final totals for Wagner and the trio of 2024 players inducted by the writers — Adrian Beltre, Todd Helton, Joe Mauer — were between two and four percent lower than their public numbers.

Sabathia posted a 3.74 ERA over 19 big-league seasons, tallying 251 wins and 3,093 strikeouts. Every Hall of Fame-eligible pitcher with at least 250 wins and 3,000 strikeouts is enshrined except the steroid-tainted Roger Clemens.

Wagner, who fell five votes shy of election last year, finished with 422 saves, the fifth-most upon his retirement in 2010 and still the eighth-most all-time. If Wagner falls short this time, his next chance will likely be on the Contemporary Baseball Era ballot scheduled for the winter of 2026.

Beltran, who was named on 80.3 percent of the public ballots as of Monday afternoon, may have the most suspenseful wait. The five-tool outfielder, who hit 435 homers and stole 312 bases while winning three Gold Gloves but was also punished for his role in the Houston Astros’ cheating scandal in 2017, received 57.1 percent of the vote last year, up from 46.5 percent in his 2023 debut.

–Field Level Media