PIMCO said Thursday that the latest US core PCE inflation data was largely in line with expectations, but beneath the surface, signs of trade-related price pressures are beginning to emerge.

Core PCE rose 0.26% in June, matching PIMCO’s forecast of 0.25% and just below the market consensus of 0.3%. The annual rate held at 2.8%, still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target, but within what PIMCO described as the “two-point-something” comfort zone that’s prevailed in recent months.

However, the asset manager warned that a firmer 0.3% month-over-month pace in the core index for June could point to a shift in inflation dynamics, with early signs that tariffs are starting to pass through to consumer prices.

While many companies have so far absorbed the cost of new trade measures, we’re now seeing inflation pick up in durable goods — a category closely tied to global supply chains and particularly exposed to tariffs, PIMCO noted.

The firm highlighted that while core PCE remains range-bound overall, inflation in durable goods is accelerating on a six-month annualized basis, signaling a potential source of upside risk for the broader inflation outlook.

PIMCO, or Pacific Investment Management Co., is one of the world’s largest fixed-income investment managers, overseeing more than $1.8 trillion in assets. Its views are closely watched by markets given its deep research capabilities and influence in global bond markets.

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That graph above is via the PIMCO note.