Markets:
- Gold down $32 to $4582, silver down 3%
- WTI crude oil down 32-cents to $59.51
- US 10-year yields up 6.7 bps to 4.23%
- JPY leads, AUD lags
- S&P 500 down 0.1%
It’s a holiday on Monday and markets on Friday mostly traded like an extra-long weekend. Newsflow was steady with some Fed talk ahead of the midnight blackout but ultimately, the moves in the FX market were minimal to finish the day.
Below the surface it was a bit more lively. The big moves on the day came after Trump said to Hassett at an event:
“I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth.”
That led the betting market to drop the odds on Hassett down to 17%. However broader market reactions may cause Trump to pivot back to Hassett. Treasury yields rose 5-6 bps across the curve on the possibility of a less-dovish Fed chair. That long-dated yields would also rise is something of a surprise as Hassett could stoke the inflationary fires.
In the same vein, the US dollar strengthened on the headlines and that runs counter to what Trump generally wants. Stock markets also dipped slightly, though not materially.
The NAHB numbers highlighted a major weak spot in the US: housing. There is talk that the Trump admin will let Americans draw down 401K retirement plans to buy homes as it faces poor polling on affordability. Today’s rise in long-term yields also won’t help.
The week ahead is a short one but will include some major economic date and we could get the Supreme Court decision on tariffs (Tuesday was announced as a decision day). Have a great weekend.
