Of the 72 economists in the Eurozone surveyed, roughly 46% are of the opinion that the ECB is “behind the curve” when it comes to cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, around 43% of economists are of the opinion that the ECB is on the right path. The remaining 11% are undecided. Here is the full poll results:
It’s almost a fair divide, though I would argue that it does show concern when the view is this much split in the first place. If anything, it shows that there is a significant chunk of market watchers believing that the ECB has been too slow in their approach. That comes amid a potential risk of inflation undershooting and/or the economy weakening much more significantly this year.
As for when the ECB will meet the end of their rate cut cycle, the majority of economists (~46%) expect the central bank to stop cutting rates in 2H 2025. Meanwhile, ~21% expect the ECB to stop cutting rates in Q2 2025 and ~19% expect the ECB to stop cutting rates only after this year.
You can check out the full survey results here (may be gated).
