Japan set for historic LDP leadership vote with Takaichi and Koizumi leading the race

Japan could soon see its first female prime minister or its youngest modern leader as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party chooses a successor to Shigeru Ishiba, who is stepping down after a string of election defeats.

The contest pits 64-year-old conservative nationalist Sanae Takaichi against 44-year-old Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former premier Junichiro Koizumi. Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi, 64, is also a contender, seen as a continuity candidate. Five candidates in total are vying for the leadership.

Takaichi leads among grassroots party members and has proposed aggressive state-led spending to double Japan’s economy in a decade, while signalling she could seek changes to Japan’s $550 billion investment deal with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Koizumi, favoured among LDP lawmakers, advocates tax cuts to ease household costs but otherwise supports fiscal restraint. Hayashi largely represents continuity with Ishiba’s cautious approach.

If no candidate wins a majority in Saturday’s first round, a runoff will be held. That scenario could tilt the advantage to Koizumi or Hayashi, since the influence of rank-and-file members drops sharply in the second round. Whoever prevails will inherit a weakened LDP and a sluggish economy.

Note – if no candidate wins an outright majority in the first round, the runoff is held the same day, typically just hours later. This avoids leaving the party without a leader overnight and ensures a swift transition.