Tomoko Yoshino is the chair of Japan’s largest trade union group, Rengo, and she’s offering up some remarks on the situation ahead of the spring wage negotiations this year. Much like Takaichi, she is also the first female chief in the organisation’s history.

For some context, Rengo’s estimated wage hikes are typically a bellwether for how the overall shuntō is going to play out in March. It was reported previously that they are aiming for wage hikes of at least 5% or more for the fiscal year 2026. They demanded 6% for the current fiscal year 2025 but in the end, that figure was watered down to 5.25%. That said, it was still the biggest hike in 34 years.

Yoshino comments that the environment for this year’s wage talks has “not been so bad”. Adding that the trade union group is also closely monitoring the Japanese yen exchange rate. For the moment, she believes that a weaker yen is accelerating inflation but expects the government to steer economic policies to stabilise prices, forex.

Circling back to Rengo’s demand for this year, the 5% ask includes more than 3% of base pay hikes – a key barometer of wage strength as they determine wage curves that provide the basis of bonuses, severance and pensions. There is a separate target for smaller firms, which typically sees higher wages, with that ask at 6% to narrow the income gap with workers at large firms.

Given the balance between the two and how negotiations tend to water down the initial estimate, the average wage hike could fall somewhere between 4.50% to 4.80%; that is if things do even go well.

With inflation being more persistent in recent years, Japan’s real wage growth remains in mostly negative territory and that is at least providing an impetus for Rengo to push for more sustained and broader wage increases.