U.S. job openings barely modified in February, staying at traditionally excessive ranges in an indication that the American job market stays robust.
The Labor Division reported Tuesday that employers posted 8.76 million job vacancies in February, up modestly from 8.75 million in January and about what economists had forecast.
However the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, confirmed that layoffs ticked as much as 1.7 million in February from 1.6 million in January, the best since March 2023. The variety of Individuals quitting their jobs – an indication of confidence they’ll discover higher pay or working situations elsewhere – rose modestly to three.5 million.
Month-to-month job openings are down from a peak of 12.2 million in March 2022 however are nonetheless at a excessive stage. Earlier than 2021, they’d by no means topped 8 million.
The excessive stage of vacancies is an indication of the job market’s power and endurance. When the Federal Reserve started elevating its benchmark rates of interest two years in the past to fight inflation, most economists anticipated the upper borrowing prices to ship america into recession.
As an alternative, the economic system has continued to develop and employers have been searching for new staff and holding on to those they have already got. Though the unemployment rate rose to three.9% in February, it’s are available under 4% for 25 straight months, longest such streak for the reason that Sixties.
“Although there is plenty of speculation that employment has slowed down, recent numbers, including job openings as well as initial jobless claims, continue to indicate that the U.S. labor market has remained stable,” Raymond James’ chief economist, Eugenio Aleman, mentioned in a notice.
On the similar time, the higher interest rates have introduced inflation down. In February, client costs had been up 3.2% from a 12 months earlier — down from a four-decade excessive year-over-year peak of 9.1% in June 2022.
The mixture of easing inflation and durable job development has raised hopes the Fed is managing to drag off a “smooth touchdown’’ — taming inflation with out triggering a recession. The Fed stopped elevating charges final July and has signaled that it plans to reverse course and cut rates three times in 2024. Nevertheless it seems to be in no hurry to begin, given the economic system’s power and with inflation nonetheless above the central financial institution’s 2% goal.
“Job openings are nonetheless elevated relative to pre-pandemic readings, signaling still-strong demand for staff,’’ mentioned Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at Excessive Frequency Economics. “A powerful labor market backdrop coupled with inflation receding however remaining above goal helps the (Fed’s) present affected person stance on future coverage choices.’’
In comparison with layoffs, the regular drop in job openings is a painless method to cool a labor market that has been crimson sizzling, easing upward stress on wages that may result in larger costs.
“The cooldown of the US labor market hasn’t been entirely painless, but the shock has been muted compared to both expectations and historical precedent,” Nick Bunker, Certainly Hiring Lab’s financial analysis director, mentioned in a notice.
Hiring seemingly remained wholesome final month. Economists count on the March jobs report, out Friday, to indicate that employers added almost 193,000 jobs and that the unemployment dipped to three.8%, in line with a survey of forecasters by the information agency FactSet.
