FOMC cut policy rates by 50 bp
- target range is now
4.75-5.00% - 2024 dot down to 4.4%, indicating another 50 bp by year-end (it was line ball, the difference between year end 25bp and 50bp was only one dot) … expectations are currently 25 bp in November and 25 bp in December.
- longer-run dot was revised higher to
2.9% - dot plot shows 2026 and 2027 both at 2.9%
- left QT in place
Economic forecasts
- GDP was revised to 2.0% for 2024-2027
- Unemployment Rate revised higher to 4.4% in 2024 and 2025
- Unemployment Rate seen to 4.3% in
2026, and 4.2% in 2027 - Core-PCE in 2024 moved to 2.6% (vs. 2.8% prior), 2025
2.2% (vs. 2.3%), 2026 unchanged at 2.0%
One dissent (first from a Fed Governor in 19 years)
- Bowman dissented in
favour of a 25 bp cut
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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.