Journalist Mark Halperin appeared on 2WAY to discuss the latest polls and affirms that Kamala Harris has trouble all over the map, the polls are accurate and President Trump is winning.
Mark Halperin: Now, I want to bring that level of transparency to my reporting this week, which has gotten some attention in some quarters. I’m trying to describe what’s happening in the race. I’m not rooting for Trump or Harris. I’m rooting for transparency, for understanding, and I’m a competitive reporter. I’m trying to tell people ahead of others what’s going on.
What’s going on, what I know is going on, is not based on partisanship or favor. It’s based on sources in both sides. I’m not saying I’m the only reporter in America with reporters in both parties, But it’s increasingly rare. The benefit of having sources in both parties is the cross-checking is super valuable. If a really valuable, well-known to me Republican source and a really valuable, well-positioned, well-known to me Democratic source are saying the same thing about what they’re seeing in the private polling, that’s really valuable. It’s more valuable than just having it from one, for sure. It gives me a greater sense of confidence of what I feel comfortable bringing to you.
There’s no doubt in my mind that the polling, as I’ve characterized it this week, is accurate, that right now, Trump would win, and that the numbers are moving in his direction, and that her problems in each individual state with different demographic groups are pronounced and she’ll need to fix with some combination of tactical outreach to Black males or union workers, whatever it is, and to a macro solution like the overwhelming effectiveness of the Nassinger Bipartisan Council of Advisors.I can’t stop joking about it because I just find it so ridiculous.
Now, as I talk to folks about the race, I’m not locking in. I’m not saying ‘Well, since I reported that the polls were going in her in his direction, President Trump’s direction,’ that that’s it. Then I’ll stick with that the rest of the way. If it changes, it’ll change.
When I reported that President Biden was planning to leave the race as early as the coming weekend, I also reported that he did not plan to endorse Kamala Harris. The reason I did was because I had it really well sourced that he didn’t. From the time I reported that to the time on Sunday when he got out of the race and then, shortly thereafter, endorsed her, my reporting is, and I said this, but it’s been ignored by my critics, I said he came under enormous pressure when I reported that he wasn’t going to endorse her from a lot of people, including very influential women close to the vice president, who said, ‘You’ve got to endorse her. It’ll look horrible if you don’t.’ And he changed his mind. So there was no open convention, as I reported there was going to be because things changed.
In this case, they changed, I think, largely because of what I reported. But my point in telling you that story, besides to see if I can shut up all the criticism of that element of my scoop, is I will change, and the story can change. All I can do is tell you in a single moment what’s going on based on my reporting.
So today, I talk to a Republican pollster who, again, is not a charlatan, he’s a real pollster. It’s someone I’ve worked with for decades. I trust him. He’s never lied to me to my knowledge.
I can’t tell you the specifics yet, but he told me that one state that the Harris campaign is very keen on winning up to seven. He said, ‘I know that state really well. I can’t tell you how,’ but trust me, he knows that state really well. And he said, ‘She’s not winning that state. Forget any public or private poll you see.’ Now, does it mean he’s right that she’s definitely not going to win the state? No. But I have confidence in person because I know his history with the state. I know how well he knows the state as a pollster.
And I’ll say that factors into my view. When I think about her Electoral College paths, and many of her Electoral College paths include that state, not all of them, but many of them do. I say, Okay, I factor that in.
When I’m thinking about how likely is she to get 270 electoral votes with that state, I don’t think it’s very likely. I’ll do more reporting on it. I think the chances that person is wrong about that state are de minimus, but they’re not zero, and I’ll keep reporting on it.
That is what I do. I don’t call up a Trump communications director and say, ‘Spin me on your polls. Tell me how great Trump’s doing.’ I don’t just take one side’s word for it. If I do, if one side tells me something, I’ll say it’s that side. I won’t muddy it up. Okay?
So that’s where I believe the race stands tonight. Confidence in Mar-a-Lago, concern in Wilmington, and greater concern amongst Democratic elected officials, who I hear from daily, asking me what I know because they know I know some stuff. Up and telling me, explicitly and through their questions, they are worried.
Doesn’t mean she won’t win, but that’s how we head into the weekend. Democrats are worried about where things stand.
And you see in her media strategy, often you’ll see my colleagues say, ‘Well, she’s doing interviews. That must mean they’re panicked.’ Or, ‘Trump’s doing a town hall with women. He must be concerned about women.’
Sometimes it’s true, and sometimes it’s not. It doesn’t mean just because they’re trying to inspire a constituency or win over undecided, it doesn’t mean they’re panicked. It doesn’t mean they think they’re doomed. They’re doing what they’re doing to try to win.
Watch:
“There’s no doubt in my mind that the polling as I’ve characterized it this week is accurate, that right now Trump would win and that the numbers are moving in his direction,” says @MarkHalperin. Kamala Harris’ “problems in each individual state with different demographic groups… pic.twitter.com/3nbDF3RatM
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 12, 2024
