Little Suspense Over Russian Vote. What Comes Subsequent Is Much less Sure.

Maria and her husband, Aleksandr, are sure that President Vladimir V. Putin will safe a fifth time period as Russia’s chief within the presidential election this weekend.

However the couple, who dwell in Moscow with their three kids, are usually not so certain about what is going to observe. Foremost of their minds are fears that Mr. Putin, emboldened by profitable a brand new six-year time period, would possibly declare one other mobilization for troopers to combat in Ukraine. Aleksandr, 38, who left Russia shortly after Mr. Putin introduced the primary mobilization in September 2022 however lately returned, is even contemplating leaving the nation once more, his spouse stated.

“I only hear about mobilization — that there is a planned offensive for the summer and that troops need rotation,” Maria, 34, stated in a WhatsApp change. She declined to permit the couple’s household title for use, fearing repercussions from the federal government.

Many Russians have been worrying a few multitude of points earlier than the vote, which began on Friday and takes place over three days. Although the Russian authorities have denied that one other mobilization for the warfare is deliberate, a way of unease persists.

The issues look like grounded within the chance that Mr. Putin will use his unfettered energy to make modifications he prevented earlier than the vote. Denis Volkov, the director of the Levada Middle, one of many few unbiased pollsters in Russia, stated these anxieties have been nonetheless felt primarily by the minority of Russians who oppose the federal government.

Whereas a possible mobilization stays the largest reason behind concern, there may be unease, too, over funds and the economic system. Some Russians fear that the ruble, which has been propped up by the federal government after plunging last year, is likely to be allowed to depreciate once more, elevating the price of imports. Businesspeople fear about greater taxes, and opposition activists anticipate extra crackdowns on dissent.

“People are very anxious,” stated Nina L. Khrushcheva, a professor of worldwide affairs on the New College in New York Metropolis who often visits Russia. “Uncertainty is the worst, as much as Russian people are used to uncertainty.”

The concerns replicate a present temper in Russia, the place many have realized to hope for the very best however anticipate the worst. The uncertainty has been worsened by a authorities that consultants say has develop into more and more authoritarian.

After greater than 20 years in energy, Mr. Putin is just not restrained by an opposition social gathering in Parliament or a powerful civil society. He’s due to this fact comparatively free to behave as he pleases.

Some consultants say that the Kremlin might use the outcomes of the vote — anticipated to be a landslide victory for Mr. Putin — to crack down even additional on dissent and escalate the warfare in Ukraine, which was meant to be a brisk “special military operation” however has changed into a slog that has precipitated lots of of hundreds of casualties.

“In an authoritarian election, the results are predictable but the consequences are not,” Yekaterina Schulmann, a Russian political scientist, stated in a response to written questions from The New York Instances. “If the system decides that it did well and everything is good, then the post-election period can be the time to make unpopular decisions.”

Ms. Schulmann pointed for example to Mr. Putin’s final re-election, in 2018, which was adopted by a extremely unpopular improve in Russia’s retirement age.

Elections in Russia are managed tightly by the Kremlin by its nearly whole management of the media and state enterprises, whose employees are sometimes pressured to vote. The electoral machine filters out undesirable candidates, and opposition activists have both been pressured to flee or have ended up in Russian prisons. The nation’s most distinguished dissident, Aleksei A. Navalny, died last month in a penal colony within the Arctic the place he had been imprisoned.

Whereas the result of the vote is just not in query, Russians have nonetheless been preoccupied by the method. The vote would be the first since Mr. Putin’s resolution to invade Ukraine in February 2022.

A Moscow guide who works with Russian companies stated a few of his shoppers had intentionally scheduled new inventory choices on the Moscow change in order that they might occur in what they anticipated to be a comparatively quiet interval earlier than the vote. He requested anonymity to keep away from jeopardizing his relationship together with his shoppers.

Russian customers additionally rushed to purchase automobiles at first of the 12 months, after auto-market analysts suggested that the interval earlier than the elections is likely to be the very best time to purchase as a result of the ruble is likely to be devalued as soon as the vote was over. The variety of new automobiles offered in Russia in January and February jumped greater than 80 % in contrast with the identical interval final 12 months, according to Avtostat, a information web site concerning the Russian auto business.

Companies have been apprehensive that the federal government will increase taxes after the vote. On Wednesday, Mr. Putin stated that the federal government would draft new tax guidelines for people and personal entities, and consultants stated that most probably meant taxes would rise for each teams.

Yevgeny Nadorshin, the chief economist on the PF Capital consulting firm in Moscow, stated firms have been significantly involved a few rise in taxes and better labor prices. “That would jeopardize Russia’s competitiveness,” he stated.

Mr. Nadorshin additionally famous the widespread rumors of one other troop mobilization that, if it occurred, might additional limit the labor marketplace for companies, he stated.

Mr. Volkov, of the Levada Middle, stated that almost all Russians, after the preliminary shock of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the mobilization that adopted seven months later, tailored to the brand new world. A lot of that was the results of authorities efforts to boost morale by ensuring the nation’s economic system stayed wholesome and injecting cash into its industrial sector.

“There has been a serious redistribution of resources in favor of the majority, who feel that they can now live a normal life without getting directly engaged in the war,” he stated, referring to wage will increase for manufacturing facility employees and varied social payouts.

Nonetheless, he pointed to what he stated was rising polarization between supporters and opponents of Mr. Putin.

“Mutual misunderstanding today is bigger and more acute than before,” Mr. Volkov stated.

Many Russian anti-Kremlin activists — those that stay within the nation and people who left — concern a brand new crackdown on dissent.

Yevgeny Chichvarkin, a Russian businessman and opposition activist in London, stated he believed that after the election, dissidents would face a stark selection between fleeing or going through imprisonment.

“Nothing will help; the choice will be either to go to jail or leave the country,” he stated in an interview with Zhivoy Gvozd, an unbiased Russian information outlet.

However some analysts have expressed doubt that Mr. Putin will do rather more than he already has to stamp out dissent.

“The system cannot be in the state of mobilization and stress forever,” said Aleksandr Kynev, a Russia-based political scientist who makes a speciality of regional politics. “If you give too much power to the security services, tomorrow they can remove you from power,” he stated. “Vladimir Putin understands it well.”

Alina Lobzina contributed reporting.