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Macklem press convention: We will take our subsequent resolution in December

Macklem’s opening statement was pre-released, these are the highs of the Q&A with the media:

  • Core inflation is easing as expected
  • Our growth forecast hasn’t changed a great deal
  • We’re going to be particularly focused on inflation and growth data
  • There was a ‘clear consensus’ on cutting 50 bps today

USD/CAD was trading at 1.3858 as the press conference began, up 40 pips. I believe that with rosy forecasts and no commitments to getting to neutral quicker, the BOC is falling further behind the curve despite a larger cut. The BOC should be at neutral now.

OIS pricing for a December 50 bps cut is at just 7%.

This is a ‘sad’ chart from National Bank.

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