Yesterday, we got the rollout of some of the new tariff rates the US will charge the countries that fail to reach a trade deal. The first one included Japan with a 25% rate which triggered a negative reaction in the markets. We got some others but the gist of it is that tariffs will go back closer to April 2 levels if negotiations fail.
The negative moves though were erased because not only the higher rates were very much expected but also because the market continues to look through this tariff noise. The August 1 deadline and some mentions that it could be extended, just show that this is the same negotiating tactic we’ve seen since Trump took office. It’s not binding.
Tariffs are just noise now and we will need some clear breakdown to get the market to care about them again. As long as we have deadlines, pauses and so on, it’s not going to matter. Trump just wants everyone to accept 10% as a good thing (and he will probably get away with it).
I think the focus should remain on the Fed and inflation for now as that’s what will influence growth and interest rate expectations in the next couple of months.
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