We are seeing huge moves in markets after Trump announced a peace deal with Iran. The news was confirmed by Israel’s N12, which suggests it’s a broader deal that also includes Lebanon.
We are seeing large, immediate moves in markets with the S&P 500 up 1.3%, or just shy of 100 points. The Nasdaq is up 1.8% and the Russell 2000 is up 2.4%.
SPX intraday
Another big mover is gold, which broke below some key levels yesterday. It’s back above those today and rising by $90 to $4165, or 2.2%. Silver is up 4%.
Treasury yields are down 5-7 bps across the curve as inflation risks fade. The US dollar is broadly weaker and USD/JPY is flirting with 160.00 to the downside.
The big loser is oil, which is trading down $2.50 with the entire decline coming on this. I tend to worry that some of this leaked as oil was curiously flat today before the announcement.
All told, this is potentially great news that ends a genuinely nightmarish scenario of opposing headlines and false starts for months. Either that or this is yet-another false start and it’s not actually over. I did highlight earlier that Trump would be eager to make a deal due to plunging poll numbers, his birthday celebrations on June 14 and the US 250th anniversary celebrations on July 4.
Update: Barak Ravid from Axios is out with more:
- The deal would extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and launch 60 days of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.
- Tehran has yet to confirm his latest claim but three sources briefed on the talks told Axios that key gaps were resolved
- Iranian
officials told several countries on Thursday that the Tehran talks
produced an agreement in principle, but Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei
still needed to give final approval
The NY Post spoke with Post and says Trump told them a deal is “pretty much all wrapped up”.
The next headline we’re looking for (and it’s a big one) is confirmation from Iran, followed by a plan to open Hormuz.
