Massive transfer: US greenback breaks down in opposition to the Swiss franc to the bottom since 2015

I can’t believe it’s been 10 years since the January 15, 2015 break of the EUR/CHF floor and all the drama around that. But in any case, USD/CHF is at its lowest since that fateful day. Excluding that brief period, its’ trading at the lowest since 2011.

The is a rush into safe haven assets today with the Swiss franc leading the FX market. This looks like a recession trade and a bet on rate cuts and economic pain in light of the US tariff war.

Technically, I imagine the break of the 2023 and 2024 lows is adding momentum to the selling as this pair is down 303 pips today or a whopping 3.5%. That’s a massive move, though it’s been orderly on the intraday chart.

The broader implication might be that if the US wants to weaponize the US dollar and destroy international norms, then there are better places to park money. This might create a deflationary problem for Switzerland though and rates are already at 0.25 and likely to be cut to zero.

Maybe we haven’t left the era of negative rates after all?