May foreign exchange seasonals: It’s not time to promote the US greenback simply but

It’s the May Day holiday in much of the world today and it’s generally a great month for workers getting in paid in US dollars. May tends to be strong for the dollar.

• Strongest month of the year for the Dollar Index
• Weakest month for EUR/USD
• Second-worst month for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY
• AUD/CAD is particularly weak, softest month by far
• Second-strongest month for copper
• Strongest month for oil, though certainly skewed by the massive percentage gain (+88%) in May 2020 (note the reversal higher today). It also tends to be a very volatile month for oil
• The first week of May is generally the strongest for stocks while the second week is the weakest
• Middling month for stock markets overall

The main pattern is US dollar strength and the turn of the calendar comes after a four-month swoon in the Dollar Index. Even a small relative bounce here would be a decent monthly gain.

For those itching to sell the US dollar, the pattern for the Dollar Index dims in June and July so a strong bounce could be a spot to sell.