Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres Game 3 Bet Picks and Predictions

The National League Division Series shifts to Petco Park in Southern California for Game 3 between the Milwaukee Brewers and the San Diego Padres. And, the homestanding Padres have their backs against the ball, and the season on the line. First pitch on FS1 is set for 9:30 p.m. ET.

Milwaukee, the No. 1 seed in the National League, has the brooms out looking to sweep away San Diego, giving them time to await the winner of the Los Angeles Dodgers-Atlanta Braves series which heads to Game 3 on Tuesday, tied 1-1.

Brewers vs. Padres Game 3 pick

The Brewers turn to RHP Dustin May, who has a ton of postseason experience in his career, although he has had some uneven results this season.

May enters Game 3 with a 1-0 record, 3.86 ERA and 1.43 WHIP across 14 IP in three postseason starts and six relief appearances, all with the Dodgers in 2019 and 2020. However, since coming over from the St. Louis Cardinals in a trade at the non-waiver trade deadline, May is just 2-2 with a 5.65 ERA in 10 regular-season starts, while posting a 1.42 WHIP. Teams are hitting .261 against him, and he has surrendered seven homers in just 36.2 IP.

The Padres will counter with RHP Nick Pivetta, who made his first-career postseason appearance against the Chicago Cubs in the wild-card series clincher on Wednesday. He allowed one earned run, three hits and two walks with four strikeouts across 3.1 IP in the no-decision, as San Diego went on to win 4-1.

Pivetta has been a lucky charm of sorts, as San Diego has won six consecutive games the British Columbia native has started since April 12. He missed five months in-season due to injury, but he picked up right where he left off, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA across 18.2 IP in four September starts.

Going back to May, he is 3-5 with a 3.14 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across 13 starts and three relief appearances in the regular season against the Padres.

For Pivetta, he is 1-3 in his career against the Brewers, while posting an 8.76 ERA (24.2 IP, 24 ER) in five starts with a 1.95 WHIP. That’s concerning. Will we get that version of Pivetta, or the one which has been on fire since returning from the injured list?

We’ll trust Pivetta in Game 3, although he might have a short leash, pulled at the first sign of trouble. It’s all-hands-on-deck with the season on the line, and there is little margin for error. The Padres were 51-30 at home in the regular season, and 2-0 in the postseason, so we’ll back PADRES (-134) to give the people in the Gaslamp Quarter something to party about, as the season is extended, at least one more day.

We’ll go low on the total, playing UNDER 7.5 (-134), as that’s a big number for a game at Petco Park, especially an elimination game.