MLB Best Bets: Three Picks for the Final Day of the Regular Season

It is the last day of the MLB regular season, and there is still meaningful baseball to be played with a pair of wild card spots and one division title undecided. So, since we should see the best possible effort out of these teams, I’ll focus on those games for today’s MLB best bets.

The following are my picks for today’s MLB Best Bets:

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Rays ML at +122

Despite their struggles down the stretch and losing their last four games, the Phillies can still lock down the last NL Wild Card spot with a win today over the Tampa Bay Rays. To that end, the Phillies are sending Zack Wheeler (13-5, 3.06 ERA, 1.06 WHIP)to the mound to start the day.

But even if he has a great day against the Phillies lineup, there is a solid chance he doesn’t get close to enough run support. Philadelphia’s bats have hit an MLB-worst .187 over the last week. It’s unlikely they do too much better against Nick Martinez (15-5, 2.94 ERA, 1.07 WHIP).

Tampa Bay doesn’t need the win like the Phillies do, but Philadelphia will not do enough to earn it.

Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins

Twins ML at +104

Texas is in a must-win situation because if they can and Houston loses to the A’s, they win the AL West and move on to the postseason. But while they won 6-2 yesterday, I don’t think this is a winnable matchup.

Mackenzie Gore (8-11, 4.59 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) is set to start for Texas, but he has really struggled on the road (4-9, 5.79 WHIP, .264 OBA). But Dean Kremer hasn’t been too hot for the Twins, either (4-5, 4.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP).

However, with how both teams have been hitting, Kremer is more likely to get the run support he needs over Gore. Over the last week, Texas has hit .215 and scored 18 runs in six games. Minnesota has hit .250 with 29 runs scored.

With these pitchers, the OVER (8 at -118) may be the best bet. But at +104, the Twins moneyline offers better value.

Houston Astros vs. Athletics

Astros -1.5 at -115 (DraftKings)

Houston is in a must-win situation today; win, and they take the division and move on to the postseason, something that seemed impossible after a slow start to the season. In hopes of making that happen, they are putting Peter Lambert (8-10, 3.87 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) on the mound.

Technically, it is on short rest since he started the September 24 game vs. the A’s. But he was pulled after 2 2/3 innings in that game after giving up six hits (two home runs) and four earned runs. Houston went on to win that game 7-5.

But the Astros are probably hoping more so that their lineup will get the job done today against the A’s bullpen, starting with Brady Basso (5.36 ERA and .322 OBA in 25 appearances and seven starts). The A’s bullpen ranks last in baseball with a 5.36 ERA.

Houston’s bats pulled through for them Saturday with 13 runs and 16 hits; they’ll pull through for the team again today.