MLB Betting Picks Today: Two Expert Picks for Tuesday’s Slate

OK, we’re above .500, hopefully we’re rounding into midseason form! Now, let’s get that money into the green!

Season Record 10-9-1, -0.02 Units

Twins at Mets

The Mets offense will likely not remain this bad forever. But right now that can’t hit their way out of a paper bag. They’ve slashed a pathetic 204/.245/.288 over their 11 game losing streak, good for a league worst 52 wRC+ over that span. It doesn’t matter lately whether they’re facing Dodgers aces or mediocre A’s starters, they make them all look like peak Pedro Martinez. But fwiw they face their one-time prospect Simeon Woods-Richardson today as the Twins bumped him up a day to replace the injured Mick Abel. SWR seemed to have discovered something in the middle of 2025 as he pitched to a 3.00 ERA and 1.06 after June 15th. Well whatever he discovered, he seems to have lost it again as he sits at 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.60 WHIP through 4 starts with a hideously low 12% K%.

Getting good pitching has not been a particular problem for the Mets lately, certainly not when Nolan McLean takes the ball. 

Through four starts, he has a 2.28 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with a 31.8% K%. He’s yet to yield more than 2 ER or four hits in any start. It’s also going to be on the chilly side tonight, so I really just don’t see a scenario where there’s much offense. The Mets should finally end their two week winless drought…I mean it’s tough to get a more one-sided pitching matchup. But it’s probably on the back of McLean, so I’ll roll with the under.

Yankees at Red Sox

Under 7.5 (-110 FanDuel)

Yankees ML (-108 FanDuel)

Going to run counter the pitching matchup here as it’s kind of a mismatch that favors Boston at first glance. Connerly Early has a 2.29 ERA which sounds fantastic and is really helpful for a struggling team that hasn’t hit well and is getting scary bad results from ace Garrett Crochet. But that ERA is a little misleading as Early has a .4.25 SIERA and 5.24 xERA. He’s just walking too many as his 11.9% BB% will attest and yielding way too much dangerous contact with a 92 EV against. His K% is 23.8% which is above average, but not exceptional enough to consistently offset his other flaws.

He’s facing Luis Gil, who has pitched every bit as bad as his 7.00 ERA indicates. His 4.9% K-BB% is likely not a very small sample size fluke as he had a 3.3% K-BB% in 57 IP last year. If he can somehow get through the order twice and the Yankees are in range, they’ll take it.

So why ride with the weak pitcher? Well it gives us a rare chance to back the Yankees at a good price and there is a big gap in offense here. The Yankees have a teamwide 110 wRC+ and have mashed 32 homers, vs. an 87 wRC+ and league worst 13 bombs for the Sox. It’s debatable Boston can fully take advantage of Gil, so give me NY.