Monday Night Football Betting Picks & Predictions for Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Baltimore Ravens put their four-game winning streak on the line when they head south to face the Buccaneers.

These teams have a lot in common. 

They have identical records at 4-2 and average almost 30 points per game. It’s no surprise we have a total that’s as high as 50 at some sportsbooks. 

However, if something looks too easy, then it probably is. I’ll share why a first-half play on the Ravens offers the best value in this matchup.

Beware of the backdoor cover

We’ve seen some movement on the full-game line with Tampa Bay as 3.5-point underdogs after opening at +5.5. 

That move is particularly interesting because the injury report doesn’t suggest anything alarming for the Ravens.

It’s entirely possible that the bookmakers simply sent out a lousy opening number for the game. 

Nonetheless, the line was probably a bit steep given that these teams are of a similar caliber, which raises the question of why the Ravens would lay such a number on the road in this spot.

After all, the Buccaneers have impressive victories over the Commanders, Lions and Eagles—three teams with a combined record of 14-5.

The line move does tell us that the Ravens can sometimes be guilty of playing with their food.

In other words, they don’t always put their opponents away convincingly to kill off a game and repel any comeback threats.

For years, it’s been the Ravens’ defense that’s carried the team. Now we’re seeing the front office spend more of its resources on offense to complement their two-time MVP at quarterback, Lamar Jackson.

When Baltimore gives its defense a lead, it can get picked apart. According to FTN Fantasy’s DVOA metric, the Ravens rank 18th in the league against the pass.

Buccaneers can play from behind

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield is in the midst of one of the best starts of his career, as he’s tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns with 15 on the season.

Previously, Mayfield was more considered a game manager, but he’s been able to come into his own in this Tampa Bay offense.

Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles, who has a defensive pedigree, was much more conservative in his first stop as a head coach with the New York Jets.

But now he’s become much more amenable to letting his quarterback sling the rock as the Buccaneers rank in the league’s top half in pass play percentage (57.1%).

There has been a clear shift in the Buccaneers’ approach under Bowles because he does have a good run offense. Tampa Bay is one of seven teams that average at least five yards per carry.

However, stopping the run is something the Ravens’ defense does very well, as it leads the league in the fewest yards per carry (3.0), rushing attempts allowed (19.5) and yards allowed per game (59.0).

These numbers speak to Baltimore’s dominance early in games because teams often have to abandon the run when playing from behind. 

I expect a similar scenario on Monday night with a Tampa Bay defense that ranks 27th in first-half points allowed (14.0).

Best bet: Ravens 1H -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)