As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there.

EUR/USD 1.1635
USD/JPY 158.09
GBP/USD 1.3398
USD/CHF 0.8011
USD/CAD 1.3911
AUD/USD 0.6681
NZD/USD 0.5731

Not too much movement from Later Friday levels.

We’ve had some news over the weekend, nothing to concrete in terms of actual implementation though. I’ll be back with further updates soon.

Europe moves to boost NATO Arctic presence to counter Trump’s Greenland rhetoric/threat

Summary:

UK and Germany are leading talks on boosting European and NATO military presence in Greenland.
Germany plans to propose a NATO Arctic mission, Arctic Sentry, modelled on Baltic Sentry.
Move aims to undercut Trump’s argument that the US must control Greenland for security.
European concern has intensified after recent US military action in Venezuela.
Denmark seeks diplomacy to counter what it calls exaggerated US security claims.

Trump orders special forces to draft Greenland invasion plan – UK Sunday Daily Mail report

Summary:

Daily Mail reports Trump has ordered US special forces to prepare invasion plans for Greenland.
Senior US military leaders are resisting the plan, calling it illegal and lacking congressional backing.
Advisers led by Stephen Miller are said to be pushing the idea after the Venezuela operation.
British diplomats see a possible political motive ahead of US mid-term elections.
European officials warn extreme scenarios could fracture NATO.

For markets:

Escalatory Greenland rhetoric raises geopolitical tail risks in the Arctic region.
Any strain on NATO cohesion would be negative for European security confidence.
Heightened geopolitical uncertainty typically supports safe-haven assets.
FX volatility could rise if US-Europe relations deteriorate.
Energy and defence sectors may see increased risk-premium pricing.

Trump floats one-year 10% credit-card rate cap, offers zero enforcement detail, just talk

Summary:

Trump calls for 10% credit-card APR cap for one year, effective Jan 20, 2026.
No enforcement detail: unclear if voluntary or government-mandated.
Part of a populist “affordability” burst this week (incl. MBS buying idea and ban on institutional home buyers).
Big gap to current pricing: Fed data shows 22.30% (Nov 2025) on the key credit-card rate series.
Without legislation / clear authority, this looks like headline politics first, policy mechanics later.

Looking ahead:

Newsquawk Week Ahead: US Earnings, US CPI, US Retail Sales, UK GDP, and China Trade

Mon: Japanese Holiday (Coming of Age Day); M2 & New Yuan Loans (Dec)
Tue: EIA STEO; US NFIB (Dec), CPI (Dec)
Wed: NBP Policy Announcement; US PPI (Nov; Oct-cancelled), US Retail Sales (Nov)
Thu: UK GDP Estimate (Nov), EZ Trade (Nov), US Export/Import Prices (Dec; Nov-cancelled), NY Fed Mfg survey (Jan), Weekly Claims (w/e 3rd Jan), Chinese House Prices (Dec)
Fri: US Industrial Production (Dec)