Monitoring John Paulson’s Paulson & Firm Portfolio – This autumn 2023 Replace

This text is a part of a sequence that gives an ongoing evaluation of the modifications made to John Paulson’s 13F inventory portfolio on a quarterly foundation. It’s primarily based on Paulson’s regulatory 13F Form filed on 2/14/2024. Please go to our Tracking John Paulson’s Paulson & Firm Portfolio sequence to get an concept of his funding philosophy and our previous update for the fund’s strikes throughout Q3 2023.

This quarter, Paulson’s 13F portfolio worth decreased from ~$1.12B to ~$1.11B. There are 17 13F securities within the portfolio though solely 15 of them are considerably massive fairness holdings (greater than 0.5% of the 13F portfolio). The article is targeted on the bigger holdings. The highest 5 positions are Madrigal Pharma, Bausch Well being, BrightSphere Funding Group, NovaGold, and Perpetua Assets. They add as much as ~73% of the portfolio.

John Paulson is greatest recognized for his extremely leveraged bets towards the real-estate bubble that netted him billions within the aftermath. To be taught extra about that, check-out the guide “The Greatest Trade Ever”. In July 2020, Paulson introduced that they’re returning all exterior cash and are changing to a Household Workplace construction.

Notice 1: In August 2021, Paulson referred to as a bubble in crypto (GBTC) (OTCQX:ETHE) saying “I would describe cryptocurrencies as a limited supply of nothing.” However he isn’t shorting crypto due to its volatility.

Notice 2: Paulson & Firm is thought to have an enormous place in Fannie/Freddie (OTCQB:FNMA) (OTCQB:FMCC) though the main points haven’t been disclosed.

Stake Disposals:

Horizon Therapeutics: Horizon Therapeutics was the biggest 13F stake at ~22% of the portfolio. It was bought in Q2 2017 at costs between $9.65 and $15.75 and elevated by ~40% in This autumn 2017 at costs between $13 and $15. There was a ~23% stake improve in Q3 2019 at costs between $23 and $28. Q2 2020 noticed a ~16% promoting at costs between $30 and $57 whereas in This autumn 2020 there was a ~20% stake improve at costs between ~$67 and ~$84. Q3 2021 noticed a ~23% discount at costs between ~$92 and ~$110. This autumn 2022 noticed one other ~75% promoting at costs between ~$61.60 and ~$114. That was adopted by a one-third discount throughout Q1 2023 at costs between ~$107 and ~$114. The following quarter noticed one other ~50% promoting at costs between ~$96 and ~$112. The place was rebuilt within the final quarter at costs between ~$99 and ~$116. Amgen (AMGN) acquired Horizon Therapeutics in a $116.50 all-cash deal that closed in October thereby eliminating this place.

Stake Will increase:

Madrigal Pharma (MDGL): MDGL is a big ~23% of the portfolio stake established throughout Q2 2023 at costs between ~$204 and ~$312. The place was elevated by 43% within the final quarter at costs between ~$146 and ~$226. This quarter noticed a ~120% stake improve at costs between ~$120 and ~$237. The inventory at present trades at ~$266.

Notice: They’ve a ~5.2% possession stake within the enterprise.

NovaGold Assets (NG): NG is a big (high 5) ~8% of the portfolio long-term stake established in 2010. Q2 2016 noticed a ~28% discount at costs between $5 and $6.50 and that was adopted with a ~13% promoting in This autumn 2016. Q1 2020 noticed a ~15% stake improve at costs between $5.87 and $9.51 whereas the following quarter noticed a ~12% trimming at costs between $7.40 and $12. The inventory is at present at $2.62. There was a ~6% stake improve this quarter.

Notice: Paulson has a excessive cost-basis on NG and controls ~7.4% of the enterprise.

Newmark Group (NMRK): The ~3% NMRK stake noticed a ~135% stake improve this quarter at costs between ~$5.25 and ~$11.15. The inventory at present trades at $10.73.

Stored Regular:

Bausch Well being Corporations (BHC): BHC place was elevated by nearly 300% in Q1 2015 at costs between $143 and $205 and one other ~340% the next quarter at costs between $197 and $242. This autumn 2015 additionally noticed a ~50% improve at costs between $70 and $182. The aggressive shopping for towards falling costs continued in Q2 2016: ~44% improve at costs between $19 and $36. Q2 2020 noticed one other ~25% stake improve at ~$16.50 per share. The inventory at present trades at $9.54, and the stake is now the second largest place within the portfolio at ~19%.

BrightSphere Funding Group (BSIG): BSIG is at present the third largest 13F stake at 15.48% of the portfolio. It was inbuilt This autumn 2018 at costs between $10 and $13.30. Q1 2019 noticed an enormous ~285% stake improve at costs between $11 and $14.25. There was a ~55% discount in This autumn 2021 at ~$31.50 per share as they participated in a fixed-tender-offer by the corporate. The inventory at present trades at $22.35.

Notice: Paulson’s possession stake in BSIG is ~20%.

Perpetua Assets (PPTA): The ~7% PPTA stake was bought in This autumn 2020 at costs between ~$6 and ~$11. There was a ~18% stake improve in Q3 2021 at costs between ~$4.75 and ~$7.70. The inventory at present trades at $3.97.

Notice: Paulson & Firm has a one-third possession stake within the enterprise.

AngloGold Ashanti (AU): AU is a 6.47% place. It’s a long-term stake that has been within the portfolio since 2009. This autumn 2015 noticed a ~9% trimming whereas the next quarter noticed a one-third discount at costs between $7 and $14. Q2 2016 noticed one other ~20% discount at costs between $13 and $18. H1 2020 noticed a ~45% discount at costs between $14 and $30. That was adopted with a ~14% promoting in This autumn 2020. Q3 2022 noticed one other one-third promoting at costs between ~$12 and ~$16. That was adopted with a ~80% discount subsequent quarter at costs between ~$12.25 and ~$19.75. The stake was rebuilt throughout Q1 2023 at costs between ~$17 and ~$24. The inventory is at present at $20.27.

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM): The three.88% AEM place took place on account of Agnico’s acquisition of Kirkland Lake Gold in an all-stock deal (0.7935 shares of AEM for every share held) that closed final January. Paulson & Firm had a 1.303M share stake in Kirkland Lake Gold for which they acquired these shares. There was a ~270% stake improve throughout This autumn 2022 at costs between ~$40 and ~$53.50. Q1 2023 noticed a ~80% discount at costs between ~$45 and ~$58. AEM at present trades at $54.37.

Thryv Holdings (THRY): The three.67% THRY stake was established in This autumn 2020 at costs between ~$8 and ~$14. Q1 2021 noticed a ~12% trimming at $27 per share. Subsequent two quarters noticed one other ~25% promoting at costs between ~$27 and ~$41.50. The inventory at present trades at $22.05. There was a minor ~7% trimming throughout This autumn 2022.

Notice: Paulson & Firm has a 5.8% possession stake within the enterprise.

Worldwide Tower Hill Mines (THM): THM is a 3.27% of the portfolio stake established within the 2013-2015 timeframe at a really low cost-basis. This autumn 2020 additionally noticed the acquisition of round 2.34M shares at ~$1.40. The inventory is now at 67c.

Notice: Paulson has a ~32% possession stake in Worldwide Tower Hill Mines.

Seabridge Gold (SA): The two.27% SA place noticed a ~125% improve in This autumn 2020 at costs between ~$17 and ~$21. There was a roughly one-third improve in Q2 2021 at costs between ~$16.15 and ~$19.75. It at present trades at $12.72.

SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM): The 1.94% of the portfolio stake in SSRM noticed a ~140% stake improve in This autumn 2021 at costs between ~$14.50 and ~$20. There was a ~35% promoting throughout This autumn 2022 at costs between ~$13 and ~$16.35. The inventory at present trades at $4.02.

Equinox Gold (EQX), Trilogy Metals (TMQ), and Tellurian Inc. (TELL): These small (lower than ~1% of the portfolio every) stakes had been saved regular this quarter.

The spreadsheet under highlights modifications to Paulson’s US inventory holdings in This autumn 2023:

Supply: John Vincent. Knowledge constructed from Paulson & Firm’s 13F filings for Q3 2023 and This autumn 2023.

Editor’s Notice: This text discusses a number of securities that don’t commerce on a serious U.S. trade. Please pay attention to the dangers related to these shares.