Apr 4, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Michigan Wolverines center Aday Mara (15) high fives forward Yaxel Lendeborg (23) during the second half in a semifinal of the Final Four of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images The Michigan Wolverines will face the UConn Huskies in the Finals. It’s a surprise that UConn is playing for the championship, but Michigan’s dominance in the Final Four might be the bigger surprise.
The Wolverines have been the best team in the tournament, and it hasn’t been particularly close. They’re winning their games by an average of 21.6 points per game. They’re also coming off a dominant win over Arizona, who was generally viewed as the second-best team in the Final Four.
The Huskies haven’t been as dominant in their path, but they have some elite wins. Their comeback against Duke was one of the best comebacks in March Madness history. They also [more-or-less] dominated Illinois in the Final Four, although they only won by 9 points.
Simply put, this should be a mismatch everywhere in favor of Michigan.
Why Michigan should win
UConn relies heavily on Tarris Reed to manufacture points. He’s likely to struggle against Aday Mara, who boasts elite size at the center position.
The key for Michigan is that it’ll be nearly impossible for UConn to win the foul battle at the center position. If Reed gets Mara into foul trouble, they’ll simply move Morez Johnson, then Yaxel Lendeborg, to slow Reed down. They have plenty of bodies, along with an elite defensive scheme to stop Reed from running their offense.
On the other side, Mara is outstanding at drawing fouls as well. Johnson and Lendeborg are two more bigs who can draw fouls. All of this makes it difficult for UConn to have an edge in their best spot on the floor.
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The other key here is that opponents need to be able to shoot to beat this Michigan defense. That isn’t where UConn is at their best. They’re shooting under 35% from deep on the season, and they haven’t been able to consistently hit shots. Still, they do have several options who come with upside, and they could find success if someone unexpected catches fire.
The final aspect here is that Dusty May is currently coaching at the highest level we’ve seen in recent seasons. Dan Hurley is also one of the best coaches in the NCAA, but I believe May has a slight edge over him at this point.
This is a wide spread for a Championship game, but I prefer every aspect of Michigan over UConn at this point.
Where to Bet: Michigan -6.5 spread | -112 at DraftKings Sportsbook
2025-26 CBB Season Betting Record: 10-10
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