Oct 8, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium. credits: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Patrick Mahomes doesn’t lose often, so it stands to reason the Chiefs almost never drop back-to-back games.

The Chiefs cruised into Charlotte with a bit of a temper after dropping their first game of the season at Buffalo. It’s not that a singular loss stings after winning 16 in a row dating to last Christmas, but the margin for error is surprisingly tiny in the AFC.

Mahomes and the crew are headed to Carolina to face a Panthers group that, well, almost never wins. But somehow Bryce Young is 2-1 since reclaiming the starting job. Is there an upset brewing?

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers

Maybe Carolina can stick around for a quarter? Maybe not.

This is more about the Panthers’ inability to get defensive stops. Carolina has risen to a productive level of offense thanks to a grinding offensive line that helped pave the way for a Chuba Hubbard breakout. With Jonathan Brooks debuting Sunday, they’ll have another weapon in the running game. But Kansas City’s front seven has been stellar, and Carolina lacks a counterpunch.

We’d double down on the Chiefs topping their projected total of 27 points based on Kansas City’s first-drive success in the first and second half and the likelihood Mahomes’ defense gets him the ball back a time or two.

Chiefs -10.5 (-115), FanDuel Sportsbook

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Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts

We feel precisely the same about this game as we did last week’s two-touchdown spread over Jacksonville: we’re comfortable going higher to jazz up our potential to cash a bigger ticket. We get the sense many have about road favorites, but the Colts are nowhere near the same class as these Lions.

During their current win streak, Detroit is putting up more than 38 points per game, and the Lions can get the job done with a mean streak that wins in any environment.

Can the Colts keep it close? The formula is to keep the game plan aggressive enough to be unpredictable but not asking Anthony Richardson to throw 30-plus passes. Good luck keeping pace with this juggernaut playing keepaway.

If you want a parlay to package with this Lions’ cover, don’t look past the wide receiver yardage totals for Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown. They should both eat again from combining for more than 250 receiving yards last week.

Lions -7.5 (-104), betMGM

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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

If you are starting to sense that Thanksgiving favorite travel theme, we are too. It comes down to one matchup with multiple tentacles: Brian Flores’ blitz-mad defense sending five or more on better than 35 percent of snaps against rookie QB Caleb Williams. Williams has avoided an interception for four consecutive games. He’s also avoided throwing a touchdown in that stretch and has been sacked more times (41) than any QB in the league.

Flores vs. rookie QBs has been a major mismatch. They’re 1-7 against Flores as defensive coordinator or head coach and average 15.5 points scored and 3.8 sacks allowed per game.

Vikings -3.5 (-105), DraftKings Sportsbook