NFL Wild Card Saturday Top Betting Picks, Predictions January 11, 2025

Hundreds of markets could qualify as one of our best bets for today. If you are into college basketball, men’s or women’s, you will not have any trouble finding a game. The same can be said for NHL and NBA fans. There’s even a UFC Fight Night in Vegas.

But we will focus on the NFL postseason as the wild card round gets underway. The Los Angeles Chargers will host the Houston Texans, and the Pittsburgh Steelers will battle the Baltimore Ravens.

Chargers vs. Texans

UNDER 42.5 Points at -110 (via Caesars)

The Chargers have the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL, holding teams to 17.7 points per game this season. Houston has struggled on offense for much of the year and will likely struggle against the best defense they have faced all season. It would be a surprise if they scored 20 points.

As for the Chargers offense, they are coming off three games with 34+ points, but in the three prior to those, they scored 17 points per game. In the three games with 34+ points, the passing game led the way, but that is going to be hard to do this week against arguably the best pass rush in the NFL.

The Chargers will likely lean into their run game, knowing that it will be hard to get the passing game on track. That will, of course, keep them from running up the score and the total UNDER 42.5 points.

Kaimi Fairbairn, OVER 7.5 Points at +105

Houston has one of the worst red zone offenses in the NFL this season, scoring touchdowns on 49.1% of red zone possessions. It’s doubtful that number is any better against the No. 1 red zone defense of the Chargers.

While he scored under seven points in the last three games, he scored 8+ in nine of the previous ten. The Chargers defense has held kickers to 6.65 points per game but allowed 8+ in four of their last five. This game will make it five of their last six.

Steelers vs. Ravens

Derrick Henry, OVER 20.5 Rushing Attempts at -114 (via FanDuel)

23+ Rushing Attempts at +135 (via Caesars)

OVER 98.5 Rushing Yards at -115 (via DraftKings)

110+/130+ Rushing Yards at +140/+290 (via bet365)

The Ravens’ success revolves around one thing—the run game. In the past, that meant Lamar Jackson, but this season, it means getting Derrick Henry on track. When he has had 100+ rushing yards (nine times this season, including the last three), Baltimore is 9-0.

The passing game opens up once teams begin to adjust in hopes of stopping/slowing down the run game, making it imperative that the run game gets established.

In his nine 100+ yard games, Henry carried the ball 23+ times in all but one. Against the Steelers, he had 13 carries (65 yards) in one and 24 (162 yards) in the other. It would be a shock if Henry did not go OVER his 20.5 total.

When you consider that he ran for 132+ yards in the six games where he had 24+ carries, the goal must be 24-30 carries.

As for his yardage total, 98.5 is a big number, but the Ravens know how important establishing the run will be in this game. They can’t count on Lamar Jackson to do it. The Steelers have shown they can contain him when he runs, and Baltimore wants to take pressure off Jackson, not add to it.

If you prefer to bet with caution in mind, take OVER 98.5 rushing yards for Henry. But if you’re okay with a bit of risk, go with 110+ to get plus-money odds for this prop. If you believe he’ll get 23-25 carries, give some serious thought to 130+ yards at +290.